How sea levels in 40 cities will change by 2050
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How sea levels in 40 cities will change by 2050
A city skyline flooded by water under a cloudy sky.
By 2050, global sea levels could increase by 1 foot from where they were at the start of the millennium. Iconic beaches, large city centers, and quaint coastal towns will all have to be adapted for higher water levels.
Sea level rise means more than just coastal land eaten up by the ocean. It will cause more inland neighborhoods to be at risk of storm surges during hurricanes and high tides, more regular flooding, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater resources.
For communities facing the brunt of shifting waters, planning for resilience has become paramount. Charleston, South Carolina’s climate resilience office has a multipronged plan, including seawall construction and shoreline restoration. Still, Charleston Harbor experienced 70 flooding events in 2022, the second highest in recorded history dating back to 1922.
Continued flooding and extreme weather events highlight the urgency of infrastructure fixes to mitigate sea level rise, but such plans are often expensive.
In California, the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission has identified projects to enhance and build seawalls, levees, and marshes across the region’s coastline. The cost of all the projects is estimated to be $110 billion by 2050. So far $5 billion has been allocated.
In western Oregon, the state’s Department of Transportation estimates it would cost over $40 million to make a section of U.S. Highway 101 resilient to cliff erosion that will become more pronounced with sea level rise.
Planning for the future is also challenging for smaller communities. Solutions like paying to move and demolish waterfront houses are often unpopular with homeowners, and beach nourishment, or adding more sand to the coastline from the ocean floor, is an expensive and temporary solution.
The impact of sea level rise will be far-reaching on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the U.S., but sea level rise will not affect the world equally. Some of the countries impacted will be those who have contributed the least to global greenhouse gas emissions such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and small South Pacific islands.
An analysis from Carbon Brief found the U.S. was responsible for releasing over 500 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent since 1850, or 20% of the world’s historical total. Other major emitters include China (11%) and Russia (7%). As human activity releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, their heat-trapping characteristics fuel the warmer weather that causes sea level rise.
Ocean water naturally expands with warmer temperatures. Along with meltwater from shrinking Arctic sea ice and glaciers pouring into the world’s oceans, global mean sea levels increase. Emissions currently in the atmosphere mean sea level rise can’t be stopped, but lower emissions scenarios can slow its pace.
Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s sea level rise technical report, released in 2022, Stacker identified projected sea level rise by 2050 for 40 cities in the U.S. The report identifies five sea level rise scenarios based on changes by 2100 from 2000 levels. They are low (an average of 1 foot globally), intermediate-low (1.6 feet), intermediate (3.3 feet), intermediate-high (4.9 feet), and high (6.6 feet). For each, projections under low, medium, and high emissions scenarios are included. Stacker focused on each emissions scenario for low, intermediate, and high sea level rise.
Unlike most places on this list, cities in Alaska are seeing falling sea levels, as its land is actually rising with shifting tectonic plates. Read on to see where major coastal cities in the U.S. stand.
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Anchorage, Alaska
A city skyline with a frozen lake in the foreground and mountains in the background.
– NOAA Region: National
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: -1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: -0.7 feet
— High emissions: -0.5 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: -0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: -0.6 feet
— High emissions: -0.3 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: -0.6 feet
— Medium emissions: -0.2 feet
— High emissions: 0.3 feet
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Annapolis, Maryland
An aerial view of a city near the water.
– NOAA Region: Northeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.8 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.4 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.3 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.7 feet
— High emissions: 2.2 feet
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Astoria, Oregon
A harbor with boats docked at a dock.
– NOAA Region: Northwest
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.1 feet
— High emissions: 0.2 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.4 feet
— High emissions: 0.6 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.5 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.8 feet
— High emissions: 1.3 feet
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Atlantic City, New Jersey
A city beach with tall buildings.
– NOAA Region: Northeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.4 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.1 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.4 feet
— High emissions: 1.7 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.3 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.7 feet
— High emissions: 2.3 feet
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Bar Harbor, Maine
An aerial view of a harbor and town.
– NOAA Region: Northeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.6 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.9 feet
— High emissions: 1.2 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.5 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.4 feet
— High emissions: 2.0 feet
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Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
An aerial view of a bridge over a body of water.
– NOAA Region: Eastern Gulf
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.3 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.1 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.4 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.4 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.8 feet
— High emissions: 2.3 feet
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Boston
A view of a city skyline from across the harbor.
– NOAA Region: Northeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.6 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.0 feet
— High emissions: 1.2 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.2 feet
— High emissions: 1.5 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.1 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.5 feet
— High emissions: 2.0 feet
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Bridgeport, Connecticut
A view of a city skyline from across the water.
– NOAA Region: Northeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.7 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.0 feet
— High emissions: 1.2 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.2 feet
— High emissions: 1.5 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.1 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.5 feet
— High emissions: 2.0 feet
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Charleston, Cooper River Entrance, South Carolina
A row of colorful houses with palm trees along the street.
– NOAA Region: Southeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.8 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.0 feet
— High emissions: 1.1 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.2 feet
— High emissions: 1.5 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.6 feet
— High emissions: 2.1 feet
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Corpus Christi, Texas
A beach with a pier in the background.
– NOAA Region: Western Gulf
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.3 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.1 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.4 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.4 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.8 feet
— High emissions: 2.3 feet
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Dauphin Island, Alabama
An aerial view of a fort on the coast.
– NOAA Region: Eastern Gulf
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.7 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.9 feet
— High emissions: 1.1 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.2 feet
— High emissions: 1.4 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.6 feet
— High emissions: 2.1 feet
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Fernandina Beach, Florida
An aerial view of a residential area along the beach.
– NOAA Region: Southeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.6 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.8 feet
— High emissions: 1.0 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.3 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.1 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.5 feet
— High emissions: 2.0 feet
Paul S. Wolf // Shutterstock
Freeport, Texas
A bridge over a body of water at sunset.
– NOAA Region: Western Gulf
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.4 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.6 feet
— High emissions: 1.8 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.6 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.8 feet
— High emissions: 2.1 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.8 feet
— Medium emissions: 2.2 feet
— High emissions: 2.8 feet
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Galveston Pleasure Pier, Texas
View of a pleasure pier.
– NOAA Region: Western Gulf
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.4 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.4 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.6 feet
— High emissions: 1.9 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.7 feet
— Medium emissions: 2.1 feet
— High emissions: 2.6 feet
Daniel Carlson // Shutterstock
Grand Isle, Louisiana
An aerial view of a residential area near the ocean.
– NOAA Region: Western Gulf
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.5 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.7 feet
— High emissions: 1.9 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.7 feet
— Medium emissions: 2.0 feet
— High emissions: 2.3 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 2.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 2.4 feet
— High emissions: 2.9 feet
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Hilo, Hawaii
An aerial view of a city by the large body of water.
– NOAA Region: Hawaiian Islands
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.6 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.7 feet
— High emissions: 0.9 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.4 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.6 feet
— High emissions: 2.2 feet
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Honolulu
A city skyline dominated by tall buildings, beaches, and water.
– NOAA Region: Hawaiian Islands
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.5 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.6 feet
— High emissions: 0.7 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.7 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.9 feet
— High emissions: 1.2 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.4 feet
— High emissions: 2.1 feet
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Juneau, Alaska
A row of buildings close to water with green mountains in the background.
– NOAA Region: National
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: -2.0 feet
— Medium emissions: -1.9 feet
— High emissions: -1.8 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: -1.7 feet
— Medium emissions: -1.6 feet
— High emissions: -1.4 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: -1.5 feet
— Medium emissions: -1.2 feet
— High emissions: -0.8 feet
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Key West, Florida
A row of houses with palm trees in the background.
– NOAA Region: Southeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.6 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.8 feet
— High emissions: 1.0 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.8 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.0 feet
— High emissions: 1.3 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.1 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.5 feet
— High emissions: 2.0 feet
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Lewes, Delaware
A wooden dock with boats docked in the water.
– NOAA Region: Northeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.8 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.4 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.3 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.3 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.7 feet
— High emissions: 2.2 feet
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Los Angeles
A city skyline with palm trees and skyscrapers.
– NOAA Region: Southwest
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.3 feet
— High emissions: 0.4 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.5 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.6 feet
— High emissions: 0.9 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.7 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
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Monterey, California
Boats docked in a port.
– NOAA Region: Southwest
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.3 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.4 feet
— High emissions: 0.5 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.5 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.7 feet
— High emissions: 0.9 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.8 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
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Nantucket Island, Massachusetts
A wooden boat docked at a small harbor.
– NOAA Region: Northeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.8 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.0 feet
— High emissions: 1.3 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.3 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.6 feet
— High emissions: 2.2 feet
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New York City
Skyline views of a city.
– NOAA Region: Northeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.7 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.0 feet
— High emissions: 1.3 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.2 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.6 feet
— High emissions: 2.1 feet
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Newport, Rhode Island
A group of boats docked in a harbor.
– NOAA Region: Northeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.7 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.0 feet
— High emissions: 1.3 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.2 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.1 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.5 feet
— High emissions: 2.1 feet
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Pensacola, Florida
A row of houses on a beach next to the ocean.
– NOAA Region: Eastern Gulf
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.6 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.8 feet
— High emissions: 1.0 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.8 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.0 feet
— High emissions: 1.3 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.4 feet
— High emissions: 1.9 feet
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Philadelphia
A row of brick buildings on a cobblestone street.
– NOAA Region: Northeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.8 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.0 feet
— High emissions: 1.3 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.2 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.6 feet
— High emissions: 2.1 feet
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Port Angeles, Washington
A sailboat floating on the water near a pier.
– NOAA Region: Northwest
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.1 feet
— High emissions: 0.2 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.4 feet
— High emissions: 0.6 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.5 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.8 feet
— High emissions: 1.2 feet
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Port Orford, Oregon
A beach with a pier in the background.
– NOAA Region: Northwest
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.2 feet
— High emissions: 0.4 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.4 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.5 feet
— High emissions: 0.8 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.6 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.0 feet
— High emissions: 1.5 feet
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Portland, Maine
Buildings along the river in a sunset.
– NOAA Region: Northeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.5 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.8 feet
— High emissions: 1.1 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.8 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.4 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.3 feet
— High emissions: 1.9 feet
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Providence, Rhode Island
A city skyline with a river in the foreground and clouds in the background.
– NOAA Region: Northeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.6 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.9 feet
— High emissions: 1.2 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.2 feet
— High emissions: 1.5 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.5 feet
— High emissions: 2.0 feet
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San Diego
A view of a city from across the water.
– NOAA Region: Southwest
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.4 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.5 feet
— High emissions: 0.6 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.7 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.8 feet
— High emissions: 1.0 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.3 feet
— High emissions: 1.7 feet
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San Francisco
A view of a park in the foreground, a city skyline visible in the distance.
– NOAA Region: Southwest
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.4 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.5 feet
— High emissions: 0.6 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.6 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.8 feet
— High emissions: 1.0 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.2 feet
— High emissions: 1.7 feet
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Santa Barbara, California
A beach with palm trees and mountains in the background.
– NOAA Region: Southwest
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.3 feet
— High emissions: 0.4 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.4 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.6 feet
— High emissions: 0.8 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.7 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.0 feet
— High emissions: 1.5 feet
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Santa Monica, California
A view of a beach and buildings in the background.
– NOAA Region: Southwest
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.3 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.4 feet
— High emissions: 0.5 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.5 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.7 feet
— High emissions: 0.9 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.8 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
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Seattle
An aerial view of a tall tower and city skyline.
– NOAA Region: Northwest
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.4 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.4 feet
— High emissions: 0.6 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.6 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.7 feet
— High emissions: 0.9 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.8 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
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St. Petersburg, Tampa Bay, Florida
A marina with palm trees in the foreground.
– NOAA Region: Eastern Gulf
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.7 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.9 feet
— High emissions: 1.0 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.4 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.1 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.5 feet
— High emissions: 2.0 feet
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Unalaska, Alaska
A harbor with boats docked in front of a mountain.
– NOAA Region: National
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: -0.5 feet
— Medium emissions: -0.4 feet
— High emissions: -0.3 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: -0.3 feet
— Medium emissions: -0.1 feet
— High emissions: 0.2 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.4 feet
— High emissions: 0.9 feet
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Washington D.C.
A tall white obelisk.
– NOAA Region: Northeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.8 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.0 feet
— High emissions: 1.3 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.0 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.3 feet
— High emissions: 1.6 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.2 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.6 feet
— High emissions: 2.1 feet
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Wilmington, North Carolina
A large building sitting next to a body of water at sunset.
– NOAA Region: Southeast
– Low sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.7 feet
— Medium emissions: 0.9 feet
— High emissions: 1.1 feet
– Intermediate sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 0.9 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.1 feet
— High emissions: 1.4 feet
– High sea level rise scenarios:
— With low emissions: 1.1 feet
— Medium emissions: 1.5 feet
— High emissions: 2.0 feet
Data reporting by Emma Rubin. Story editing by Ashleigh Graf. Copy editing by Tim Bruns. Photo selection by Ania Antecka.
