Severe weather season heats up as hail, wind and tornadoes threaten the South
By Pedram Javaheri
A powerful storm system with clashing cold and warm, moist air is setting up a multiday severe weather threat for the Southeast — just in time for the weekend.
“These ingredients have set the stage for blossoming showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into Thursday night,” the Weather Prediction Center said Thursday morning.
The series of storms impacting the region late this week has already produced up to a foot of late-season snow across the high Rockies. It will also create extreme wildfire conditions across western and central Texas.
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The severe storm impacts will be felt in parts of the Mississippi River Valley, home to at least 22 million, before the system migrates eastward, impacting another 45 million people from the Ohio Valley down to the eastern Gulf Coast on Friday.
On Thursday evening, strong to severe storms will fire up across parts of southern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas and the central Gulf Coast, with storms continuing into early Friday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk, level 2 on a scale of 1 to 5, for Thursday’s severe weather potential.
“We have a lot of spin in the atmosphere and a decent degree of instability, think of it as a boiling pot of water and it’s all primed to spill over ahead of the cold front coming through,” Phil Grigsby, lead forecaster at the National Weather Service in New Orleans told CNN.
Any outdoors plans on St. Patrick’s Day could be impacted in cities including Dallas, New Orleans and Jackson, Mississippi, as severe weather elements, including hail, wind and tornadoes, will be in play.
The primary threat with these storms will be damaging straight-line winds gusting as high as 40 to 60 mph. Such winds will bring down branches and potentially impact power lines and make driving treacherous along some parts of interstates 10 and 20.
Hail as large as 2 inches in diameter is possible with some storms over Texas and Oklahoma.
“We actually have a 15% chance for large hail in the area; that’s the highest value we’ve assigned for this storm,” Grigsby told CNN.
Hail of this magnitude can cause damage to property, including vehicles parked outdoors. Stay vigilant by using a protective cover over vehicles parked outdoors and always be considerate of your pets ahead of severe weather events, especially when there’s a chance for hail and potential for tornadoes.
New Orleans at risk for nocturnal tornadoes
The risk for tornadoes looks to be somewhat limited for this round of storms, with only a slight chance of a few isolated tornadoes in the severe weather risk zone; however, that risk will be the highest overnight. “While most of the surface-based risk should remain over the northern Gulf, an uptick in tornado potential very late in the period warrants an inclusion of 5% tornado probability,” the Storm Prediction Center said in its forecast outlook.
The zone with the highest likelihood of tornadoes is centered across far southeastern Louisiana, including the city of New Orleans.
Nocturnal tornadoes are more than twice as deadly as tornadoes in other parts of the day, mainly because it is more difficult to relay warning information to the public while most are sleeping.
“Here in the New Orleans area, we expect the peak time for the storms to be around 6 to 9 a.m. Friday, right around the morning rush hour, while over towards Lafayette and Baton Rouge it’ll be in the 2 to 6 a.m. time frame,” Grigsby told CNN.
Flooding rainfall and more severe storms Friday
The threat in New Orleans peaks in the early part of Friday, while the energy shifts east during the early afternoon, from the Ohio Valley down to the southeastern Atlantic coastline.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe weather threat area stretching from Columbus, Ohio, down to Wilmington, North Carolina, and south toward the Florida Panhandle and the Gulf Coast states.
On Friday, cities from as far north as Cincinnati, Ohio, to Louisville, Kentucky, will be greeted with wet conditions and a potential for a few strong thunderstorms, some of which could produce damaging gusty winds and large hail.
The threat will remain the highest down around the northern Gulf Coast, where periods of heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds, and large hail are all possible in cities including Mobile and Dothan, Alabama, and Pensacola, Florida. Once again, the risk for a few isolated tornadoes remains in the forecast, especially closer to the Gulf Coast, where the air is more unstable.
Whether or not severe storms with tornadoes happen, wet conditions will certainly impact millions of Americans along the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. For some, this will be beneficial, while for others, the incoming rain will add to the surplus, potentially aiding in flash flooding concerns.
“Some thunderstorms may also contain excessive rainfall rates, prompting the issuance of a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding in Alabama and western Georgia,” the Weather Prediction Center said.
Since February 1, Atlanta has recorded over 8.1 inches of rainfall, a total that’s nearly 120% of normal for the period ending March 15.
Birmingham has seen a surplus of 124% of average rainfall in that same period, while Nashville is nearing 150% of average rainfall for the same time frame.
Conversely, Louisiana is suffering from a massive drought, with over 90% of the state currently categorized as experiencing severe drought conditions. According to the Climate Prediction Center, the unsettled conditions will continue across the Gulf Coast states as the region has over a 70% probability to see above-normal precipitation over the next 6 to 10 days.
Early next week, forecast weather models indicate a potentially stronger system taking shape across the central US, with the elements in place to produce a more robust severe weather outbreak across parts of the South, central and southeastern states.
The month of March typically offers up around 80 tornadoes in the US, while activity ramps up in April with an average of nearly 155 monthly tornadoes.
According to the Storm Prediction Center, there have only been 65 reports of tornadoes in the US this month through March 13.
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