Hurricane Milton continues on path toward Florida as Category 4 storm. Here’s what Florida can expect.

By KC Sherman, Dave Warren and Ivan Cabrera

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    MIAMI (WFOR) — After strengthening into a Category 5 hurricane, Milton weakened slightly to a powerful Category 4 storm as it continued on its path Tuesday toward the west coast of Florida.

The National Hurricane Center said in an 11 a.m. advisory that Milton was packing maximum sustained winds of 150 mph and was about 520 miles from Tampa. It was moving eastward at 9 mph.

“Milton poses an extremely serious threat to Florida and residents are urged to follow the orders of local officials,” the hurricane center said.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach.

A hurricane warning is also in effect from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay. A hurricane watch continues for the Dry Tortugas, Lake Okeechobee, Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonta Beach, Florida east coast from St. Lucie/Indian River County line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River.

Miami-Dade and Broward are under a tropical storm warning that extends on Florida’s southeast coast from Flamingo in Everglades National Park to the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line. A tropical storm warning is also issued for the northeast coast of Florida north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River.

A tropical storm warning had been issued for the Florida Keys, Florida’s west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach and from Florida’s west coast from north of the mouth of Suwanee River to Indian Pass.

When Milton grew into a Category 5 storm on Monday and continued to intensify, it became one of the strongest hurricanes by wind speed in the Atlantic Basin. There have only been five Atlantic hurricanes on record with wind speeds higher: Allen in 1980 with 190 mph winds, Dorian in 2019 with 185 mph winds, Wilma in 2005 with 185 mph winds, Gilbert in 1988 with 185 mph winds and the Labor Day Hurricane in 1935 with 185 mph winds.

Milton is expected to weaken to a Category 3 when it makes landfall on Florida’s Gulf coast early Thursday. The most likely path suggests it could make landfall in or near the Tampa Bay area.

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 51 counties ahead of Milton’s expected landfall. In the state of emergency bulletin, DeSantis included Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties.

The governor said Monday that 5,000 National Guard members have been deployed in response to Milton. An additional 3,000 members are expected to be mobilized before landfall.

Forecasters warned of dangerous storm surge. Tampa Bay, as well as the Anclote River to Englewood, Florida, could see storm surge as high as 15 feet. Charlotte Harbor and the area from Yankeetown to the Anclote River, as well as the area from Englewood to Bonita Beach, could see as much as 10 feet of surge.

Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee could see up to 7 feet, while the Suwannee River to Yankeetown, Chokoloskee to Flamingo could get up to 5 feet of storm surge. Dry Tortugas could hit 4 feet surge.

“The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the hurricane center said.

“Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday,” the hurricane center said. “This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.”

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday.

The ongoing rounds of showers and storms will prime Florida soils for what will likely be an increasing flood risk set to continue into the week ahead.

South Florida received a “one-two punch” with the system. A weaker and non-tropical area of low pressure began to swing through on Sunday and continued on Monday, bringing South Florida’s first round of heavy rain and some flooding. On Tuesday, there will be a slight break with a few storms across the area.

The second “punch” will be Milton. The storm is expected to bring more heavy rain and windy weather.

Depending on its track, Milton could bring tropical storm conditions early Wednesday for most of South Florida; however, the Florida Keys could see these conditions earlier.

For now, South Florida’s main threat continues to be the risk of rainwater flooding, with 4 to 7 inches or more looking likely across the area.

South Florida is under a flood watch through Thursday.

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