El Niño is officially here, and it could get historically “super”
By Andrew Freedman, CNN
(CNN) — El Niño has officially begun, and it is forecast to intensify into a very strong or “Super” El Niño with major shifts in global weather patterns and an even hotter climate, according to a new report released Thursday morning from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
El Niño is a periodic weather pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that alters winds and features unusually hot waters in the central and eastern Pacific. These changes in winds and ocean temperatures have knock-on effects on weather patterns worldwide.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is giving this El Niño a 63% chance of becoming a “very strong” event (colloquially known as a Super El Niño) and one of the “largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950.” In a sign of the center’s certainty in the forecast, it’s giving 100% odds of El Niño continuing through the fall and extremely high odds continuing into the winter.
For it to be considered a Super El Niño, tropical Pacific water temperatures must be more than 2 degrees above average. Some reliable computer models suggest that bar will be greatly exceeded.
For the past few months, large volumes of unusually hot water have been sloshing from the western Pacific to the eastern tropical Pacific, forced by shifting winds. This unusually hot water has traveled about 600 to 1,000 feet beneath the ocean surface and is beginning to rise to the sea surface thousands of miles to the east, closer to South America. Similar dynamics have played out during past intense El Niños.
Super El Niño events are relatively rare, with the most recent ones occurring in 2015-16, 1997-98 and 1982-83.
Because El Niño involves the transfer of a large amount of heat energy from the ocean to the atmosphere, this phenomenon also has implications for the global climate. It boosts global average surface temperatures on top of the human-caused warming trend from fossil fuel pollution, virtually guaranteeing that 2027 will eclipse 2024 to set a record for the planet’s new warmest year.
How El Niño may affect you
El Niño tilts the odds in favor of certain weather and climate extremes, including heat waves, flooding and droughts, depending on the location. In the US, its impacts are most evident during the winter months.
Hurricanes: While El Niño can supercharge the central and eastern Pacific hurricane season, it tends to limit the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Stronger El Niños like this one tend to increase the likelihood that these effects will occur.
The hurricane season connections could spell trouble for the Southwest US and Hawaii, depending on where individual storms track.
US winter: Warmer-than-average conditions are typically seen from the northern US to western Canada and Alaska, although this doesn’t preclude periods of colder weather at times. The southern tier of the US is often wetter and cooler since a more active jet stream steers more storms over this region.
• California could see more frequent atmospheric river events as the moisture-laden jet stream crashes ashore, though it is difficult to predict which part of the state would get the brunt of it.
Flood, heat and drought: Some regions, like Australia and Indonesia, are prone to drought and heat waves during El Niños, which can lead to wildfires and water supply concerns.
• In summer, monsoon rain is reduced in India and southeast Asia, and there are signs of this already starting to occur. Reduced precipitation in these areas can exacerbate summer heat extremes.
• The Caribbean also often sees drought during El Niño. Warm and dry winters are typical in parts of southern and eastern Asia. Drought conditions could grow in Southeast Africa during the Southern Hemisphere summer from December to February. Meanwhile, areas closer to the Horn of Africa could see flooding rains during the October to January period.
• In addition, a portion of southeastern South America is prone to seeing heavier rainfall during El Niño years, while southeastern Brazil sees hotter than normal conditions. A swath of northern South America extending into parts of Central America tends to be drier than average from July through December. Northwestern South America, including Peru, is prone to heavy rainfall from El Niño during the January through May period, given the proximity to unusually hot ocean waters.
Oceans: El Niño events can lead to widespread marine heat waves and coral bleaching, giving corals’ sensitivity to higher ocean temperatures. The marine heat waves themselves can also influence regional weather patterns.
Economic impacts: Studies have shown that strong El Niños can reduce countries’ economic growth through disaster losses, food supply disruptions and other effects.
But that’s not all: Individual El Niños, even very strong ones, do not precisely follow the impact playbook, and there will be surprises.
There is an extra dose of uncertainty about this Super El Niño’s impacts because this event is occurring at a time when the world is already much hotter than average due to global warming from fossil fuel pollution, so there are some questions regarding how that could turn up the dial on El Niño-related extreme weather events.
In short, there has never been an El Niño, let alone a Super El Niño, when the background climate was as warm as it is now.
CNN meteorologist Chris Dolce contributed to this story.
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