Severe thunderstorm outbreak to target the Midwest Wednesday with intense tornadoes possible

By Meteorologist Mary Gilbert, CNN

(CNN) — A severe thunderstorm outbreak fueled by an unusually strong storm system for June is possible Wednesday in the Midwest with intense, long-lived tornadoes, large hail and widespread damaging wind gusts all on the table.

The new threat adds insult to injury for a weather-weary region that can’t seem to catch a meaningful break this month: A multi-day siege of storms last week produced more than 1,500 reports of wind, hail and tornadoes in the central United States.

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Wednesday’s most concerning threat will roar to life in the afternoon, but storms with powerful wind gusts were already rolling through Iowa early Monday morning. These storms produced a hurricane-force wind gust of 94 mph near Albion, Iowa — about 50 miles northeast of Des Moines, Iowa. The storm threat pushed southeast from there and reached Illinois by mid-morning.

The morning storms will continue to head east into the afternoon and a new round will fire up in their wake not long after. The threat will center mainly on an area from Missouri to Indiana in the afternoon and early evening. A Level 4 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms is in place for parts of Illinois and Indiana — including Indianapolis — while the rest of the area is mostly under a Level 3 of 5 risk.

Supercell thunderstorms are expected to charge through these areas.

Supercells are more likely to produce tornadoes than other types of thunderstorms, but twisters are still possible in other storms elsewhere in the Midwest and into parts of the Plains.

The tornadoes that do form in the higher risk area could become intense — EF3 strength or greater — and might also travel long distances.

These worst-case scenario twisters aren’t guaranteed to develop, but there’s a more significant chance than usual for this time of year. That’s because the overall storm system driving the threat is unusually strong for June and it’s providing an extreme amount of moisture and energy to fuel explosive storms.

The severe thunderstorm threat will expand in scope a bit during the evening as a cold front kicks off more storms stretching back into parts of Missouri and eastern Kansas.

Damaging wind gusts potentially topping 75 mph will take over as the main threat later Wednesday night, with individual storms expected to merge into cohesive lines from eastern Kansas first and eventually expand to western Ohio.

Storms will persist for a time overnight, generally tracking southeast. Any remaining threats will clear out of the Midwest Thursday and shift into the East.

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Meteorologist Briana Waxman contributed to this report.