UK-US pharma deal could lead to nearly 230,000 unnecessary deaths in England, analysis says
By Anna Cooban, CNN
London (CNN) — A new trade deal between the United States and United Kingdom could result in more than 200,000 otherwise avoidable deaths in England by diverting billions of pounds away from vital health services, according to a new analysis.
In December, the UK agreed with Washington DC to increase the UK’s spending on new medicines from 0.3% of GDP to at least 0.6% over the next decade as part of a broader deal aimed at avoiding punitive tariffs threatened by President Donald Trump.
In return, the US said it will not impose levies on British exports of pharmaceutical products and medical devices for the next three years. In September, Trump threatened tariffs of 100% for some medicines imported into the US.
An analysis published in The British Medical Journal (BMJ), a peer-reviewed medical journal, on Wednesday said the deal is expected to cost the UK’s publicly funded National Health Service (NHS) an additional £45 billion ($60 billion) by the end of 2036 to pay for the new medicines.
“In publicly funded systems with finite budgets, higher spending in one area inevitably takes away the opportunity to spend elsewhere,” wrote the authors from the the UK’s University of York and University of Liverpool as well as New Zealand’s Christchurch Hospital.
Unless the UK government stumps up extra money, redirecting funds away from services in the NHS could lead to 229,000 extra deaths and exacerbate health inequalities in the country, according to the analysis. It added that most of the avoidable deaths are likely to occur among people with heart and respiratory conditions, as well as gastrointestinal disease and cancer.
The UK’s Department of Health and Social Care, and Department for Business and Trade did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The UK government has praised the “landmark” US trade deal, which it expects to “safeguard medicines access and drive vital investment for UK patients and business.”
But Wednesday’s analysis criticized what it argues is a false assumption of the deal: That avoiding Trump’s threatened tariffs will produce economic benefits in the UK.
“The UK remains a net importer of medicines, meaning that much of the additional expenditure is likely to accrue to multinational manufacturers rather than remain within the NHS or wider UK economy,” the authors wrote.
By 2031, the authors said that the deal’s projected costs are expected to be higher than the total annual value of UK pharmaceutical exports to the US.
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