East Coast eyes strengthening nor’easter already battering Mid-Atlantic shores
By Meteorologists Mary Gilbert, Chris Dolce, Dakota Smith
(CNN) — An early fall nor’easter is gathering strength along the central East Coast, pounding beaches in several states with heavy surf and threatening to bring coastal flooding, wind and rain to parts of the Northeast through the weekend.
The nor’easter, named for the direction its punishing winds come from, currently sits several hundred miles off the Mid-Atlantic coast and will begin to track north and strengthen over the next two days.
Areas from Boston to the New York City metro will start to feel the effects of the storm’s biggest punch of wind-driven rain and coastal flooding by late Friday or early Saturday. It could dump up to a month’s worth of rain in parts of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, including Boston and Providence.
Coastal flooding and hammering winds are already underway from North Carolina and Virginia to New Jersey, the start of a dayslong coastal flood and erosion threat that will extend into New England as the storm ramps up.
The coincidence of the full moon Saturday is compounding the problem by raising high tide levels day by day.
Here’s what’s in store as the nor’easter develops.
Northeast faces a wet, windy weekend
Forecast models have waffled back and forth for days but have been consistent on putting New England and Long Island, New York, in the bull’s-eye of the storm’s most significant rain and wind this weekend. Those impacts could also extend as far south as the New Jersey coast if the storm wobbles farther west.
Potent wind gusts, significant coastal flooding, beach erosion and heavy rain will hit these areas by late Friday and Saturday, but that could shift depending on exactly where the storm sets up.
The storm will continue to affect parts of the Northeast into Sunday or Monday. It’ll likely be past its peak strength by then, but coastal flooding, rainfall and breezy conditions could still persist.
Boston and Providence, Rhode Island, are a couple of the cities where wet and windy conditions will ramp up by Friday night or Saturday morning.
New York City looks to be on the storm’s western edge, outside of its most intense conditions but close enough to see periods of rain and wind gusts close to 40 mph late Friday through Saturday. Urban flooding is possible in the New York City area around high tide on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The flooding could be worsened if rain is falling at the same time that water levels are rising.
Coastal portions of New England and Long Island will likely encounter the strongest winds. A high wind warning is in effect for coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for Friday and Saturday, when wind gusts could reach 45 to 60 mph. That could be strong enough to down trees and knock out power in spots.
The wind will also rough up seas considerably and cause significant beach erosion and coastal flooding at high tide Friday into Saturday.
Rain could cause some flooding in urban, poor drainage areas and roads in southeastern New England and eastern Long Island. Portions of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island could see 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend, with the hardest hit areas seeing up to 5 inches.
Coastal flooding underway in Mid-Atlantic
Coastal flooding is a lock in the Mid-Atlantic through the end of this week regardless of what the nor’easter does in the Northeast because of two other factors.
The first is a strong area of high pressure over eastern Canada that’s sending crisp and chilly air to the Northeast. High temperatures in the region are forecast to only climb up to the 60s into the weekend as a result.
That high pressure and the burgeoning nor’easter are squeezing the air between them, increasing wind speeds along the East Coast.
The second factor at play: a full moon. Tide levels will climb higher each day until they hit their monthly peak around Saturday’s full moon. Higher water levels and stronger winds are the exact combination needed for serious coastal flooding.
North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey experienced some flooding Wednesday in coastal areas, including near rivers and creeks, with a few locations in southeast Virginia reaching major flood stage. Additional bouts are expected there through Friday or even Saturday.
Many locations will experience at least moderate inundation of ocean water and some places could see major flooding. The flooding and pounding surf day after day will likely result in significant beach erosion as well.
A stretch of North Carolina’s Highway 12, the slim road connecting the Outer Banks barrier islands, was closed at Rodanthe in Dare County Thursday after waves breached a protective dune. Officials expect overwashes will continue to occur with high tides.
Some streets in Norfolk, Virginia, were closed Wednesday due to flooding and several are expected to be impassable during high tide Thursday, City Councilman Thomas Smigiel said in a social media post. The city’s public schools and administration offices are also closed Thursday.
Atlantic City, New Jersey, and Nags Head, North Carolina, are among the communities that have closed beaches to swimming due to the storm.
Parts of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey southward to eastern Virginia could also see some light to moderate rain showers depending on how far west the storm system travels.
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CNN’s Kate S. Petersen contributed to this report.
