Israel is holding its most important election in years. Here’s what’s at stake

By Tal Shalev, CNN

Tel Aviv (CNN) — When Israelis go the polls on October 27, they will face a familiar question: Should Benjamin Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, stay in power?

Nearly every recent election has been a referendum on Netanyahu. This time, many Israelis say the choice is more consequential than ever: not only about who will lead the country, but about where it is heading.

It is the first national vote since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, the deadliest security failure in Israel’s history, and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, which have mobilized much of the country and subsequently deepened Israel’s international isolation.

For many voters, this is the first chance to pass judgment on the leadership that presided over October 7 failures, to decide who should lead the country in conflict and who should carry the burden of increased military service.

Netanyahu’s outgoing government – the first in decades to conclude a full four-year term – relied on far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners, who pushed Israel in a more nationalist and religious direction than ever before. He became the first sitting Israeli prime minister to stand trial on corruption charges as his government pursued a judicial overhaul aimed at weakening the supreme court and other checks on power. The overhaul effort sparked massive protests in 2023.

At stake in Tuesday’s election is whether Israel keeps moving in the nationalistic, conservative and religious direction – or changes course. The answer might not be clear for weeks, because of the way Israeli coalitions are built. Polls suggest neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition is likely to win a majority alone, meaning the vote may launch Israel’s next political crisis rather than settle it.

Who is running and who is ahead?

Israelis vote for party lists, not individual candidates. In a society divided by nationality, religion, ethnicity and ideology, that produces a crowded field.

Dozens of lists register each cycle – 37 this time around – but only those that pass a 3.25% vote threshold win seats and enter the 120-seat Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Polls suggest 11 to 13 parties will meet the bar; seats are allocated through a proportional representation system.

The two largest parties are Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud and Yashar, a new centrist party led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff who has emerged as his principal challenger.

The latest Channel 12 opinion poll puts Eisenkot first with 23 seats, ahead of the Likud with 21, though other pollsters differ. On the pro-Netanyahu Channel 14, Likud is projected to take 30 seats and Eisenkot about 20. In head-to-head matchups about who is better suited to be prime minister, Eisenkot has led Netanyahu by a steady margin.

But coming out as the largest party is not enough to win. A prime minister needs 61 seats to form a government, and no party has ever won that majority alone. So, election night usually settles very little. The real contest is the coalition calculus that follows, which can take days, weeks, and even months.

Most polls put Netanyahu’s bloc, made up of Likud, two far-right parties led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, and two ultra-Orthodox parties, at 49 to 55 seats, short of the 61-seat majority.

The opposition, which looks strong on paper, is deeply fragmented: Eisenkot has parties led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman to his right, and the Democrats party led by Yair Golan on his left. Bennett and Liberman have not endorsed Eisenkot and both have their own premiership aspirations.

According to the opinion polls, any alternative government would probably need the support or the abstention of the Arab parties, and several opposition leaders have ruled out any cooperation.

With no side holding a clear majority, a deadlock, a minority government, a unity government – or another election – are all plausible outcomes.

What could swing the result?

With neither bloc projected to win comfortably, the outcome may hinge on the margins: which small parties clear the 3.25% threshold and how many votes go to parties that miss it, effectively sending them down the drain.

Turnout matters, since a few thousand votes can determine whether a party disappears entirely or enters parliament, or even becomes the kingmaker that breaks the deadlock between the blocs and reshapes the political map.

Arab voter turnout could be pivotal. Palestinian citizens of Israel – who make up roughly 20% of the Israeli population – have traditionally voted at lower rates than the national average. In the 2022 election, the Arab turnout was 53.2%, while the general turnout was 70.6%. This time, pollsters expect it to exceed 60%. That would raise the threshold and make it harder for small parties to survive.

Netanyahu’s coalition has several small parties at potential risk, including Smotrich’s Religious Zionism and a new right- wing party led by Ofer Winter, a prominent retired military general.

While most opposition parties sit safely above the line, another new, uncommitted small party, connecting a reservist and economic agenda, is polling close to the 3.25% threshold.

Another factor drawing attention is Israelis living abroad. Israel does not allow overseas voting, except for diplomatic staff, and official data suggests more than 11% of the 7.3 million eligible voters, about 810,000 people, live outside the country. Thousands plan to fly to Israel to vote in person, a number that could potentially impact the election.

What do Israelis vote about?

In a country that has been through years of war, security and accountability are powerful electoral forces. But opinion polls suggest the cost of living is also a leading concern for many voters – particularly for younger ones.

According to the latest Channel 12 poll, 21% of Israelis rank the economy and the cost of living as their top priority in the coming election – ahead of the ultra-Orthodox conscription with 17%, the October 7 failure at 14% and the war with Iran at 10%.

The picture differs sharply by political bloc: among voters of Netanyahu’s coalition – the war with Iran ranks first at 21%, while among opposition voters, the October 7 failure leads at 28%.

A September survey by the Achord research center at Hebrew University found that 58% of voters aged 22-34 year olds said cost of living and housing prices would drive their vote, while 36% cited security issues.

Despite these figures, the economy has not been a central theme in the campaign topic – until this weekend, when Netanyahu moved it to the top of the agenda. In an interview to Channel 10 focused on the economy, Netanyahu addressed the wave of international condemnation of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and said Israel should prepare for possible international banking sanctions by developing “an economy that can circumvent them.” He said crypto currency and blockchain are being considered, and he had requested a plan to deal with it.

The interview sparked harsh criticism of Netanyahu by economists, including a rare rebuke from the Bank of Israel, who publicly rejected the idea, which said that “cryptocurrencies cannot serve as a means of circumventing sanctions.”

Netanyahu’s main rivals portrayed his proposal as evidence he expects Israel to become more isolated. Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s main challenger, mocked the idea as “BibiCoin” and called it a “threat to national security,” accusing Netanyahu of planning to “dismantle the Israeli economy for generations ahead.”

How might October 7 and the war in Gaza shape the vote?

Netanyahu built his political career as a security hawk, yet he was prime minister on October 7, when Hamas infiltrated the Israeli border, killing more than 1,200 Israelis and taking 251 hostages into Gaza.

He has resisted taking personal responsibility and has rejected demands to establish a state commission of inquiry to investigate the security failures. His opponents have made that lack of accountability a central campaign theme.

The war has also shaped Eisenkot’s personal story. His son Gal, 25, was killed fighting in Gaza in December 2023, a loss that reinforces his appeal to voters focused on security. Other party lists have recruited bereaved families and relatives of former Israeli hostages as candidates. Opposition parties have also added new reservist candidates, fresh from fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, pushing the issue of military service to the top of the election agenda.

Most Jewish Israelis over 18 are subject to conscription, but ultra-Orthodox men have long enjoyed a blanket exemption for religious study. Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners have sought to preserve and expand the exemption, even as the Israeli military says it is missing more than 12,000 personnel while being stretched by multi-front fighting. Reservists fill the gap, serving up to hundreds of days a year on repeated deployments.

All the opposition parties have made universal service a central campaign pledge.

What does the election mean for the Palestinians?

The outgoing government was among the most hardline on Palestinian issues in Israel’s history, driven largely by two far-right nationalist party leaders.

Smotrich, the finance minister, who also oversees civil administration in the occupied West Bank, pushed to expand settlements dramatically, while withholding tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority (PA), which critics say could bring its economic collapse.

Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, championed a death penalty law in the Knesset, toughened conditions for Palestinian prisoners, and weakened police enforcement against Israeli settler violence in the West Bank. Both opposed ending the Gaza war, both are advocating for Israeli settlements in Gaza, and both envision full annexation of and Jewish control over the West Bank.

If Netanyahu returns to power with his current partners, that approach is likely to continue and intensify. Smotrich wants to cancel the Oslo Accords, dismantle the Palestinian Authority, and go to war in the West Bank. Ben-Gvir, who has said he will demand the defense ministry in a new government, has called for Palestinian emigration from Gaza and the West Bank.

An opposition government would probably not represent a radical ideological reversal, and would change the tone more than the substance. Eisenkot, like Netanyahu, has rejected Palestinian statehood, and any opposition coalition would include right-wing parties resistant to any concession.

Still, a government not dependent on Ben- Gvir and Smotrich would likely act more forcefully against settler violence, drop open advocacy of emigration and PA collapse, and be more responsive and receptive to US and regional initiatives in Gaza and elsewhere.

But it would inherit the same unresolved questions: how to disarm Hamas, who rebuilds Gaza, and who restores law and order in the West Bank.

What does it mean for the rest of the world?

The wars in Gaza and Lebanon, the conflict with Iran and the surge in settler violence have left Israel’s diplomatic standing at its weakest point in decades. Netanyahu faces an International Criminal Court warrant alleging war crimes in Gaza, and he avoids traveling to most European countries because of the risk of being arrested. US President Donald Trump endorsed him ahead of the vote, but the picture in the wider American public is much less friendly.

A March 2026 Pew Research Center poll found 60% of US adults surveyed held an unfavorable view of Israel, and 59% had little or no confidence in Netanyahu to do the right thing regarding global affairs. Pew’s Spring 2026 Global Attitudes Survey pointed the same way, with majorities in most of the 36 countries it covered holding unfavorable views of Israel and its prime minister.

The shift has been sharpest in Western Europe, where several countries – including the United Kingdom, France and Canada – have recognized a Palestinian state and imposed sanctions and trade restrictions on Israeli settlements and individuals and entities linked to settler violence. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have been personally sanctioned and are facing travel bans from multiple Western countries.

If Netanyahu’s government is re-elected, that international pressure will likely grow. A government led by Eisenkot or another opposition figure might see some easing of tensions, at least at first. Firmer action on settler violence could open a window to restore warmer ties with some European governments and the US Democratic party.

But it is not likely to reverse the broader trend. The main opposition contenders are not expected to overhaul Israel’s security and foreign policy, so a new government would regain some diplomatic breathing room, but not a clean slate.

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