Europe’s record-shattering heat wave would have been ‘virtually impossible’ just a few decades ago. Here’s why

By Laura Paddison, CNN

(CNN) — The record-shattering June heat that’s baked Europe this week would have been “virtually impossible” just a few decades ago, according to a new analysis, which says the human-driven climate crisis is “unequivocally to blame.”

The ongoing heat wave is the region’s “most severe ever recorded,” according to the study published Friday by World Weather Attribution, a scientific network which analyzes the role of climate change in driving extreme weather events.

Huge parts Europe have been suffocating under a stubborn heat dome parked over the continent, trapping hot air and leading to extreme and dangerous heat and humidity. Heat domes are not unusual, but the temperatures in this one have been.

Records have fallen like dominoes: France experienced its hottest day on record Wednesday, beating a record set only the day before. The UK posted its highest June temperature ever recorded Wednesday, then smashed it again Thursday. Spain endured its two hottest June days on record Monday and Tuesday. Switzerland posted its hottest recorded June temperature on Thursday. The list goes on.

To calculate the role climate change played in these extremes, WWA scientists used real-world and forecast data to analyze the three hottest days and nights of this heat wave across a huge section of Europe, comparing the likelihood of similar extremes during past major heat wave years of 1976 and 2003, when the Earth was cooler.

They found both the daytime highs and nighttime temperatures during this period would have been “virtually impossible” 50 years ago, in 1976, when some of the previous European heat records were set.

The world has warmed by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) over the past 50 years, which has increased the chances of extreme heat immensely, the scientists said.

A similar heat wave occurring in June 1976 would have been a startling 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit cooler (3.5 degrees Celsius), according to the study, which has not been peer-reviewed but used peer-reviewed methods.

The scientists looked at nighttime temperatures, too, which have also been record-breaking: France endured its hottest night ever recorded Wednesday into Thursday. Heat at night is particularly dangerous because it allows the body no time to recover.

Europe’s sweltering nighttime heat is about 100 times more likely today than it was in 2003, the year of a major European heat wave that killed more than 70,000 people, the report found.

The WWA scientists also analyzed the impacts of the heat wave’s high humidity. They looked at 854 cities across 30 heat-affected European countries and found 45% of them have broken or are about to break their all-time records for wet bulb globe temperature.

Wet bulb globe temperature accounts for the combined impacts of temperature, humidity, sun and wind, and is a measure of heat stress and the body’s ability to cool itself. The higher it gets, the harder it is for the body to rely on its cooling mechanisms, especially sweating, increasing the chances of heat exhaustion or even heat stroke, which can be fatal.

“This summer shows that at 1.4 degrees Celsius of global warming, extreme heat is already reaching the limits of our societies’ ability to cope,” the scientists wrote.

Europe’s heat has quickly turned deadly. Although the true extent of deaths won’t be known for some time, countries have already reported hundreds of heat-related fatalities.

In Spain, more than 200 people have died due to the heat wave over just four days, according to data estimates from the country’s mortality monitoring system, reported Thursday. At least 48 people have drowned in France seeking relief from the heat over the last week.

The heat wave also forced thousands of schools to close, disrupted rail services, led to power outages and closed tourist attractions.

Europe is the planet’s fastest-warming continent and these kinds of extreme heat waves are only expected to become more severe, frequent and prolonged unless humans rapidly phase out fossil fuels, the scientists said.

“It’s really now a question of what kind of future we want for ourselves, and whether we’re willing to do what it takes to secure it.” said Friederike Otto, a professor of climate science at Imperial College London.

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