Iran appears to be preparing a major test of America’s blockade
By David Goldman, CNN
(CNN) — Just before the United States reimposed its naval blockade of Iranian ports Tuesday afternoon, Iran appeared to be readying blockade-busting vessels in the Persian Gulf that could attempt to evade US military forces.
Twenty-three Iranian vessels operating inside the Strait of Hormuz are fraudulently flagged, recently turned their transponders off or otherwise manipulating their activities to become what the industry calls “dark vessels” that make up “shadow fleets,” according to Windward Intelligence, a maritime security information service.
Iran has significant experience evading US sanctions, relying for years on a complex network of shadow companies, secretive oil cargo swaps and murky financial exchanges, noted Adnan Mazarei, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former deputy director of the International Monetary Fund. Its shadow fleets spoof their identities and sell most of their oil to China.
For example, one Iranian tanker tracked by Windward is traveling a circuitous path, loading Iranian crude at Kharg Island – Iran’s main oil hub – and routing through Iraq’s Basrah Oil Terminal before continuing on to its destination to China. That pattern is consistent with Iranian techniques to mask the origin of its cargo, Windward noted.
Ten of the 23 vessels Windward identified as potential blockade-busters hold cargo, according to Vortexa, a cargo tracking service. The remaining 13 are currently empty.
Despite the United States desanctioning Iranian oil as part of its now-defunct Memorandum of Understanding, Iran continued to use its shadow fleet to export roughly 50 million barrels of crude oil in June and 10 million in a single day last week, according to an analysis by TankerTrackers.
Many of those vessels that exited the Strait of Hormuz during the three-week ceasefire agreement are now sanctioned again. Seven of them are giant oil tankers sitting in the Indian Ocean, laden with crude and waiting on a willing buyer, Windward said.
The first US naval blockade, which lasted from mid-April through mid-June, was effective in limiting much – but not all – of Iran’s exports in and out of the strait. The regime makes about 50% of its revenue from oil sales, according to the US Energy Information Administration, and it has found a willing buyer in China, which the EIA says imports about 80% of Iran’s oil, despite US sanctions.
The blockade drove Iran’s massive inflation rate significantly higher: It already averaged 50% over the past 12 months – the country’s highest since World War II – and surged well above that in April, when the blockade started, Mazarei said. Food inflation has run well over 100%.
Around 90% of Iranian trade goes through the Persian Gulf, Mazarei noted.
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