Trump is letting in 300,000 tons of beef duty-free. Don’t expect cheaper burgers

By Elisabeth Buchwald, CNN

(CNN) — President Donald Trump is trying to make your hamburger cheaper, but his plan may not put much of a dent at the supermarket register.

Last week, Trump signed an executive proclamation allowing 300,000 metric tons of beef to enter the US duty-free for 90 days starting on September 1. The imports are required to be sold at “25 percent below the market price,” according to the proclamation. A pound of ground beef currently costs Americans about $6.89 on average, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

The White House hasn’t specified how a lower tariff rate on ground beef would lower prices, only telling CNN that foreign exporters are willing to discount the beef because there are no duties. It’s also unclear how the agencies tasked with overseeing the program will monitor whether the imports are actually being sold at those prices.

But even if the beef is sold for a lower price, that won’t make much of a difference at grocery stores.

“It’ll be some additional pounds on the market that we didn’t have before, and in that context, that could be good for consumers,” said Glynn Tonsor, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University who studies meat pricing. “But I think it’s easily overstated how much it might help.”

For starters, 300,000 metric tons of beef is equivalent to around 2% of domestic beef consumption, per US Department of Agriculture data. Additionally, the tariff exemptions only apply to beef trimmings, which are blended with other cuts to make ground beef. That means exempting only beef trimmings will limit any overall price cut for consumers, said Tonsor.

On top of that, the impact will also depend on whether the imports add to the supply of beef or simply replace beef that processors would have otherwise bought from US suppliers, he added.

Why have beef prices gone up?

Consumers are paying 27% more for ground beef as well as all kinds of beef and veal compared to three years ago. Over the past year alone, both are up around 9%, according to July Consumer Price Index data.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai suggested in a statement to CNN that the elevated prices Americans have seen stem from “insufficient supply to meet consumer demand.”

“The President’s action is helping meet short-term beef needs while the Administration works with American ranchers to expand domestic production and grow the American cattle herd, which is currently at a multi-decade low,” he said.

While that’s true, Tonsor said it doesn’t fully explain why prices have risen, particularly because American cattle ranchers are raising larger cattle that yield more beef.

There are other factors, too, on the supply side, including an outbreak of New World screwworm in Mexico that halted imports of live cattle from Mexico until recently.

But the price increases, in Tonsor’s view, are much more of a demand story.

Last month, Americans were willing to pay $10.09 for a pound of ground beef and $24.62 for a hamburger dining out, according to a monthly survey of around 3,000 Americans that Tonsor conducts called the Meat Demand Monitor.

Three years ago, they were willing to pay $8.67 for a pound of ground beef and $20.19 for a hamburger.

That growing appetite for beef stems from quality improvements, Tonsor said, citing the survey responses he received.

That could complicate Trump’s efforts to bring down prices. Even if the administration succeeds in getting more beef onto the market — and at a discount — it might not be enough to meet Americans’ appetites.

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