Mild El Nino brings warmer temps, flood potential for spring

The series of storms hitting our region is affecting thousands of people throughout the Snake River Plain.

Pocatello has more than tripled its average of snow for February.

With El Nino-like temperatures today, snowmelt is inevitable, causing the potential flooding in lower elevations.

Starting Monday through Thursday, more than an inch of rain is expected to fall in Pocatello. Snow is beginning to melt on the mountains, exposing our grass once again. Portneuf River is not full, but it’s flowing steadily.

Forecasters say this year’s El Nino is weak, but there evidence it’s here.

“Prior to the winter season, we were looking into the possibility of an El Nino. That hasn’t yet materialized and isn’t making that atmospheric connection that it usually does, until just recently,” National Weather Service forecaster Tim Axeford said.

El Nino years usually bring warmer and dryer temperatures to the area. This week, moisture from the west brought rain and warmer temperatures to lower elevations. It will get much colder next week, bringing more snow and ice, but the flood potential could be high for the spring.

“As we go forward for the next couple of weeks, moving into Spring we’ll shift our focus to what does the spring flood outlook look like,” Axeford said.

Pocatello is pushing 19 inches of snow throughout February, 13 inches above average.

“While we are creeping up there with this recent system which pumped in a lot of snow and moisture we are a still below where we were in 2017,” he said.

Rain or snow, there is a silver lining to these winter weather patterns. Idaho was considered abnormally dry last summer. Forecasters believe this winter will help bring eastern Idaho out of a mild drought for this summer.

“With the snowpack that we’ve had, we will be adding moisture to those areas that were abnormally dry so that will help those things moving forward,” he said.