A growing number of House Republicans privately believe they won’t win the House

By Sarah Ferris, David Wright, CNN

(CNN) — Four weeks to Election Day, a growing number of House Republicans privately fear their chances of holding onto the majority are vanishing and have begun focusing on how to limit the size of a potential Democratic wave.

Inside the House GOP, Republicans have watched with alarm as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have sunk in their own internal polling — including on traditionally red turf — over the last two weeks, according to more than a dozen people familiar with the discussions.

Now, the House GOP is entering triage mode. Republicans are discussing pulling money from once-competitive races they see as too difficult to win, including Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, Rep. Tom Keane in New Jersey, and an open seat in Nebraska, according to three people familiar with the talks.

But the GOP does have a huge cash advantage and not all Republicans are pessimistic. Speaker Mike Johnson is “absolutely still convinced” that he can hang onto the House and is not taking any seats “off his board,” according to a political aide. Johnson just returned from New Jersey and is planning a rally with Miller-Meeks in Iowa next week, according to his team.

The House GOP’s campaign arm, too, strenuously denies that the majority is lost.

The rising anxiety among Republicans though reflects a grim national environment that has triggered alarm bells up and down the ballot, with Senate Republicans suddenly forced on defense in red seats like Kansas – with control of both chambers of Congress up for grabs. Trump, too, is on a nationwide campaign swing, with stops in a more competitive part of Ohio, as well as deep red territory like Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama.

“There’s a lot of close races, and it’s hard to make a prediction,” retiring GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse said of his party’s chances this week, but acknowledged, “Affordability is a big deal. People see the gas prices every single day.”

While Newhouse said his party has worked to address cost of living issues, he noted, “There’s just a lot of things making it tough right now for rural America – which I can speak to specifically – but for Americans all over the country.”

Many Republicans acknowledge to CNN that the souring national environment – fueled by soaring diesel prices, stubborn inflation and hardening opposition to the Iran war – are largely out of their control this late in the race. They say their strategy is now focused on how to limit Democrats to the slimmest majority possible – in a bid to make governing all but impossible for a potential House speaker Hakeem Jeffries next year.

Johnson’s historically narrow majority – the slimmest since before World War II – has been a major headache for GOP leaders, with Johnson unable to wield control of the floor on numerous occasions. Republicans want Jeffries to face the same problem.

Several people said their goal is to keep Jeffries’ margin to fewer than 10 seats. If that happens, one GOP strategist summarized: “What the f**k are you going to get done over there?”

Few Republicans believe it will be a total wipeout for their party, where Democrats win more than 30 seats. And some believe there is still a path to keeping their narrow majority, especially if gas prices drop significantly in the next four weeks. Party leaders are particularly confident about two incumbents in purple seats: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania and Mike Lawler in New York, both in seats Kamala Harris won in 2024.

But there is growing anxiety from GOP members and aides about protecting parts of the country that haven’t elected Democrats to the House in decades – seats Trump won by double digits that are suddenly in play with incumbents who rarely face competitive general elections.

As of early October, Republicans are still planning to use a massive cash advantage to support their strongest incumbents, while turning up the heat on their top offensive targets, like Rep. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio’s 9th District, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington’s 3rd – and drowning Democrats in spending.

The GOP’s huge cavalry of super PACs, meanwhile, helps build a firewall around their reddest turf to avert disaster, with Trump-linked groups spending in seats once considered a reach for Democrats, but are now in play, like Colorado’s 5th District, Kentucky’s 6th district and Montana’s 1st district.

“The environment is bad but Democrats still have to win on GOP terrain,” one GOP operative said.

How Republicans could still keep the House

If House Republicans are going to pull off an upset in November, they say it would come down to the party’s massive cash advantage and its aggressive gerrymandering push.

Republicans are outspending Democrats in every one of the 10 most expensive House races on advertising from now until Election Day, according to data from AdImpact. That includes multi-million-dollar advantages in Democratic-held seats like Rep. Don Davis in North Carolina’s 1st District and an open seat in Maine’s 2nd District.

Much of the GOP’s spending is concentrated in newly redrawn seats in Texas and Florida, the fates of which are still highly uncertain, especially for incumbents like GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Texas. But if even a handful of those seats swing towards Republicans, it could make up for losses elsewhere.

“At the end of the day, redistricting could be the lifesaver either way – either minimizing the losses or the reason we potentially hold onto the majority,” one GOP leadership aide told CNN.

Then there are the handful of swing seats where Republicans feel more upbeat because of Democratic clashes during the primaries, which left their nominees more vulnerable. That includes California’s 22nd District, Michigan’s 7th District and that open seat in Maine – where progressives beat out establishment-preferred centrists.

GOP’s messaging in final weeks

Even in a challenging midterm environment, Republicans are turning to issues that they feel give them an advantage with voters – with taxes, immigration, and law enforcement figuring prominently in their campaign ads.

Tax cuts on tips, overtime and Social Security delivered by the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” were the fulfillment of a key 2024 campaign promise, and that’s been a point of emphasis. Republicans have also hammered Democrats for opposing the legislation.

“Zach Nunn voted for the largest middle class tax cut ever,” says an ad from the GOP incumbent in Iowa’s competitive 3rd district.

An analysis of AdImpact data found that about one-third of GOP ads in House races in September focused on tax policy, making it the top issue tracked by the firm.

Immigration, which ranked fourth, has been another key argument for Republicans. “Stelson wants you to pay for criminal illegal immigrants’ healthcare,” says an ad from the House GOP’s main super PAC, “Congressional Leadership Fund,” targeting the Democrat in Pennsylvania’s 10th district.

GOP advertisers also produced dozens of ads touting their support for law enforcement and accusing Democrats of being soft on crime. Several begin with grisly accounts of local crimes, juxtaposed with rhetoric from Democrats calling for criminal justice reform. “Attention all criminals, do we have some good news for you: Christina Hines, the liberal Ann Arbor prosecutor, is running for Congress,” says one ad airing in the competitive race for Michigan’s 10th district.

Other specific issues have also animated these key races, including Republicans’ sustained focus on transgender policies, an issue they’ve used to attack Democrats since it proved effective in the 2024 campaign. As a result, Democrats have increasingly taken to the airwaves to rebut the criticism, such as Kaptur in Ohio’s 9th District.

Republicans say the Democrats’ quick response to the transgender politics attacks show that it’s an effective issue – and believe it’s been making a dent in internal polling.

“Here’s the truth: I voted with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of our schools because parents know what’s best for their kids, and boys should not play in girls’ sports,” Kaptur says in one ad.

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