Tropical Storm Bertha forms, threatening Gulf Coast with flooding rain and strong wind gusts

By Meteorologist Melissa Nord, Chris Dolce, Dakota Smith, CNN

(CNN) — Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the northeastern Gulf and is expected to hit portions of the Gulf Coast from Florida to Louisiana, potentially reaching as far west as Texas.

Heavy rain, coastal flooding and tropical storm-force winds are all possible in its path. The system was already spinning some bands of heavy rain into the Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon.

The second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has winds of 40 mph and additional strengthening is possible.

🌀 ⛈️Watch: See the latest track and intensity scenarios for the storm on the CNN Weather app

A tropical storm watch has been issued for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Ochlockonee River west to the Jefferson-Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana. In these locations, tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 24 to 48 hours. Additional watches could be issued farther west along the Louisiana and Texas coast in the next day or two.

Though now classified as a tropical storm, Bertha still remains an unorganized system as persistent thunderstorms have formed only on its southern half. Dry air and the storm’s large size have kept it from strengthening into a healthy tropical cyclone, despite fuel from near-record warm Gulf water.

Atlantic hurricane season has gotten off to a slow start, compared to recent years, as El Niño tightens its grip on parts of the basin.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a lower-than-average number of named systems in the Atlantic this season because of it.

Storm track, intensity

Bertha is likely to encounter more roadblocks for it to strengthen in the next few days.

The tropical storm will most likely track along or make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast near southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi by Wednesday.

This would prevent it from intensifying much because tropical systems weaken over land. It would also face an increasing amount of storm-killing wind shear, which is the change in speed or direction of winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Those unfavorable factors could even cause the system to dissipate over Louisiana, but the latest forecast calls for it to reach the Upper Texas Coast as a tropical depression by late week.

Impacts expected on Gulf Coast starting Monday

Regardless of the system’s fate, heavy rainfall, gusty winds and some coastal flooding will impact the northern Gulf Coast Monday night through at least midweek.

Here’s what to expect:

• Rainfall: Widespread totals of 2 to 4 inches, with up to 8 inches in the strongest thunderstorms, are possible from the western Florida Panhandle to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and possibly the Texas coast. This could trigger flash flooding, especially in urban areas like New Orleans.

• Wind: Tropical storm conditions — sustained winds of 39+ mph— are possible in the tropical storm watch area of the Florida Panhandle Monday night into Tuesday. Locations farther west in a tropical storm watch could see those conditions late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Higher gusts in thunderstorms could cause isolated power outages.

• Storm surge: Water levels could rise 2 to 4 feet above normal from the mouth of the Mississippi River in southeast Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida border. A storm surge watch is in effect for this area, which means life-threatening inundation of ocean water is possible in the next 48 hours.

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