Trump admin cuts to satellites will set back US weather forecasting by a decade, experts say

By Andrew Freedman, CNN

(CNN) — The Trump administration’s cuts to weather satellites will set the country back nearly a decade, experts say. The loss of data used to observe, forecast and research extreme weather could prevent the country from making major advances in weather prediction in the coming years.

This finding comes from a new report released Friday from the Government Accountability Office, and a letter sent to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Monday from Democratic lawmakers.

The GAO report details ramifications from budget cuts made to the program for developing new geostationary weather satellites. These large satellites orbit the Earth at a fixed distance, centered over specific spots on the planet. They take the imagery of swirling clouds and storm systems that people see on the evening news or on their weather app each day. The data gathered by these satellites are crucial to issuing accurate weather forecasts.

The budget reductions are aimed at taking the program from $19.6 billion in lifecycle costs to $13 billion. But they introduce the risk of a gap in satellite coverage between when the first of the current geostationary satellites, known as the GOES-R series, reaches the end of its service life, and when the first new satellite comes online in 2032, the GAO found.

Any gap in satellite coverage, which the GAO warned could last for several months, would deprive weather forecasters of vital weather observations and could reduce forecast accuracy.

CNN has reached out to NOAA for comment.

The new satellite program is called the Geostationary Extended Observations program, or GeoXO. Last year, the Trump administration directed NOAA and NASA, which is working with NOAA to develop the spacecraft, to reduce the number of satellites that would be part of the new constellation from six to four, and to eliminate three of the five instruments that these satellites are each slated to carry.

As CNN reported last year, the instrument changes were partly motivated by a push to narrow the satellites’ applicability to weather forecasting, rather than conducting climate research as well. Among the instruments that were nixed: a tool to monitor air quality, including hourly monitoring of wildfire smoke; as well as one meant to study water quality and ocean currents, along with harmful algae blooms.

But so too was a new version of an instrument carried by GOES-R satellites, known as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. This sensor, first deployed on a GOES satellite in 2017, can detect lightning flashes anywhere on the globe and has proved to be useful for predicting tornadoes as well as monitoring the rapid intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes. Other applications include weather forecasting for aviation and wildfire monitoring.

The first GeoXO satellite will have none of those instruments on board when it launches in 2032, the GAO report stated. Instead, it will carry tools already available on previous satellite models, such as a visible and infrared imager to track storms day and night and an infrared sounder that can be especially useful in feeding data into weather models by taking a vertical snapshot of the atmosphere. The sounder data includes conditions like wind speed and direction as well as humidity levels.

Originally, NOAA was planning to have three geostationary satellites operating simultaneously, one over the Eastern US, one above the Central US and another above the West. In addition, NOAA requires a spare satellite to be capable of taking over for one of the operational satellites in case of an instrument failure or other mishap.

However, given the new budget cuts and instrument changes, there will now only be a GeoXO satellite over the East and one over the West, along with a backup satellite.

The GAO questioned whether these new satellites are more advanced than what is in orbit. “It is unclear whether GeoXO will improve, or even continue, the functionality available in the current generation of satellites,” the report said.

The lightning mapper’s absence represents a loss of capabilities from the current generation of GOES-R satellites.

“Our need for weather information is much greater now than it was ten years ago,” said Steve Volz, who used to lead NOAA’s satellites division and is now CEO at HyperionEO LLC, a consulting firm focused on Earth observations. He said the other nixed instruments would have specifically addressed “stated requirements from Congress.” He warned the cuts made to instruments on the GeoXO satellites could put the US behind Europe, Japan and China in advancing forecast accuracy.

The top Democrat on the House science committee, Zoe Lofgren, and Democratic member Gabe Amo wrote in a Monday letter to the NOAA administrator that the administration is poised to set the US back years on weather forecasting rather than advancing its capabilities.

“Thanks to the Trump Administration, the next generation of America’s weather satellites could very well be worse than the current ones,” the letter, shared first with CNN, states.

“Two fewer satellites and three fewer scientific instruments are not line items in a budget. They represent a concrete, tangible weakening of America’s ability to understand the weather, the climate, and the world around us,” the letter says.

The letter seeks information from NOAA leadership regarding any cost-benefit analyses completed regarding the loss of certain instruments from GeoXO, among other documents.

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