Election Day storm could impact voter turnout in key midterm races in the central US
American model forecast for Tuesday early afternoon.
By Meteorologist Chris Dolce, CNN
(CNN) — A soggy storm will track through the central United States on Election Day and could influence voter turnout for key races in the region.
Exactly which races will see rain next Tuesday is still a toss-up, with questions remaining about the storm’s exact location and strength. This is normal for a forecast nearly a week away.
We’ll know more by this weekend, but for now, it’s looking like Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and Texas might have to contend with wet conditions.
The rain will be a turnout factor in those states and for others in the central US who aren’t among the more than 35 million people who have already cast ballots through early voting.
Rainfall and other active weather tend to suppress voter turnout while sunshine has the opposite effect, multiple studies have found.
The big forecast picture
Tuesday’s rain threat could extend from parts of the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest to the western Gulf Coast, but exactly where the storm sets up will mean the difference between staying dry, a washout or nuisance showers.
Gusty winds could accompany the rain in the Midwest and Plains, and strong thunderstorms are possible on the storm’s southern side.
Dry weather will likely bookend the storm along much of the East Coast and in the West. The only exception is coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast where nuisance showers can’t be completely ruled out yet.
One forecast is for sure: There will be no need to bundle up. High temperatures in most of the nation’s eastern half are forecast to be 5 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Only the Southwest will have temperatures tilting a bit cooler than average.
The breakdown below shows the forecast for some of the key states in the midterms. Keep in mind these forecasts will likely change as confidence grows in the storm’s path by this weekend.
Key race forecast
- Georgia: Likely dry with highs in the 70s and low 80s.
- Iowa: Rain is likely at least part of the day, although there is still a chance showers could push out of the state by early morning. Highs are expected to reach the 50s and low 60s.
- Kansas: Rainfall is a good bet in parts of the state, but how much and exactly where is still up in the air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s.
- Maine: Likely dry with highs in the 40s and lower 50s.
- Michigan: Forecast models show vastly different outcomes. Some have widespread rain sweeping across much of the state, while others bring just nuisance showers to western Michigan or the Upper Peninsula. Highs will range from the 40s and 50s in the Upper Peninsula to the 60s in southern Lower Michigan.
- New Hampshire: Likely dry with highs in the 40s and 50s.
- North Carolina: Likely dry with highs in the 70s.
- Ohio: Most forecast models keep rainfall west of the state, but it’s too early to rule out wet weather. Highs should reach the 60s.
- Texas: The eastern half of Texas, especially along and east of Interstate 35, has the highest chance to see rain. Some thunderstorms are possible too. Highs will range from 80s near the coast to 60s in the state’s panhandle.
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