Trump promised a blue-collar jobs boom. The opposite is happening

By Nayeli Jaramillo-Plata, Matt Egan, CNN

New York (CNN) — President Donald Trump promised voters in 2024 that if they returned him to the White House, his policies would deliver a blue-collar jobs boom.

“We’re going to have a manufacturing boom,” Trump said during a September 2024 rally in battleground Georgia.

Trump said his policies would attract “energy-hungry industries,” creating “millions and millions of blue-collar jobs and jobs of every type.”

And yet as his first calendar year in office winds down, that blue-collar jobs boom has yet to arrive.

If anything, industries that rely on manual labor are cutting jobs, not adding them, a trend that economists blame at least in part on the president’s historic and volatile tariff policy.

The latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released Tuesday, shows that most sectors traditionally considered blue collar have been shrinking headcount.

“You can’t say the economy is doing really well if these jobs aren’t growing alongside it.” said Hardika Singh, economic strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors.

Manufacturing jobs hit 3.5-year low

For instance, the transportation and warehousing industry has cut jobs in each of the past three months. That industry has lost an average of 17,200 jobs over the past three months, according to BLS data.

Mining and logging payrolls are down by an average of 2,000 over the past three months.

Even manufacturing, the industry the president’s tariffs are designed to boost, is cutting jobs. Manufacturing employment fell by 5,000 in November to the lowest level since March 2022 during the rebound from Covid-19.

In fact, manufacturing employment is down seven months in a row, each month since Trump rolled out his “Liberation Day” tariffs that rocked Wall Street and alarmed Corporate America.

One of the only bright spots for blue-collar jobs is construction, which added a strong 28,000 jobs in November.

After shedding workers earlier this year, construction is averaging a gain of 17,333 over the past three months.

There’s no hard and fast rule around what qualifies as a blue-collar job — but traditionally these are positions that involve manual labor or skilled trades, such as operating machinery and building infrastructure.

Trump officials remain focused on blue-collar jobs.

As recently as June, the White House promised that Trump’s tax and spending cut law, the One Big Beautiful Bill, would “unleash our economy and deliver a Blue-Collar BOOM.”

Trump officials have also hailed pay increases among blue-collar workers as evidence that his economic agenda is working.

In June, the White House said real wages (after adjusting for inflation) for hourly workers increased by nearly 2% in the first five months of the president’s second term, the biggest such increase under any administration in nearly 60 years.

Why these sectors are struggling

Economists point to a variety of factors for the pressure on blue-collar jobs, including trade policy, high borrowing costs, automation and a shortage of skilled workers.

Although high tariffs on US imports are designed to reshore manufacturing jobs to America, that can take time – if it occurs at all.

“Reshoring doesn’t happen overnight. It doesn’t even happen in six or seven months. It takes several years,” said Michael Reid, senior US economist at RBC.

Trump has slapped tariffs on critical imports US manufacturers need, including steel, aluminum and copper.

Uncertainty over trade policy and rising prices on imports that blue-collar workers use to make goods are hurting demand for workers.

“When input costs go up, one of the easiest things to do is to cut labor,” said Reid.

Singh noted that blue-collar workers rely on small businesses – and those smaller companies are being hit hard by inflation and high interest rates.

AI is also changing the way work gets done, and some roles in manufacturing and construction are being automated,” she said.

Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, said the hit to blue-collar jobs reflects a tariff-driven slowdown in the cyclical parts of the economy.

“These are the sectors tied to tariffs,” Roth said.

By contrast, one industry less exposed to tariffs and the ups and downs of the economy continues to enjoy a hiring boom: health care.

Employment in the health care and social assistance industry jumped by 64,000 in November and 64,600 in October. Zooming out, this part of the economy has added almost 800,000 jobs over the past year as health care enjoys strong demand driven by the aging population.

What’s next?

The good news for blue-collar workers is some are hoping a rebound could be around the corner.

Roth expects job growth to accelerate in blue-collar sectors as the initial tariff shock eases.

“Boom might be an optimistic term,” she said. “But you could see these sectors look better, not because manufacturing is coming back to the US, but because the tariff shock will fade with the passage of time.”

The stakes are massive for families and local economies.

“If you can’t find a job nearby, or the one you have isn’t keeping up with inflation, it affects people’s ability to provide for their families,” she said. “It’s not just numbers — it’s the way communities are feeling the strain.”

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