Calm & breezy Friday before sloppy weekend weather

A change in the weather might stir up your weekend plans, as Hurricane Rachel prepares to make landfall in California this afternoon. While Eastern Idaho and Western Wyoming remain far from hurricane-like conditions, we will certainly begin to feel heavy rain and wintry mixes blowing in from the Southwest over the next few days.

We will begin Friday morning in a peaceful state of conditions: dry air, chilly fall morning temperatures, and clear skies overhead. Breezes will slowly pick up into the afternoon from the Southwest, creating potential near-critical fire conditions in parts of Southern Idaho later.

We will start Friday morning with little cloud cover and temperatures coolly collected around the lower 40s. With sunrise around 7:30 am, temperatures will still run above average for the afternoon, with highs pushing toward 80 degrees. Expect breezes to pick up gradually throughout the day as a deep low-pressure system moves up from the south (we could see breezes pick up to around 35mph potentially this late afternoon). Some sprinkles of moisture and rain could occur later in the afternoon, but it will remain calm across the region overall, with breezes shifting as the day progresses. If you need to run any outdoor errands, this Friday morning and afternoon are the time to do so.

The big weather driver behind this weekend's sloppy weather, however, won't make its presence fully known until later this evening and overnight. Hurricane Rachel's current path weakens its system into a deep low-pressure route through Eastern Idaho, Southwestern Montana, and Western Wyoming this weekend. This means cooler temperatures across the region, heavy rainfall and gusty winds, and high snow potential in the mountains.

Bands of rain showers, embedded with thunderstorms, will push from the south up towards the Montana divide, transitioning into snowfall in the elevated mountain regions. Expect snowfall and a wintry mix in the Central Mountains and portions of the Eastern Highlands, continuing into early next week. Light amounts are still expected, but highest peaks and ridgelines may indeed accumulate several inches of wet snow across the Central Mountains, around Island Park, and along the Montana border.

The much cooler, wetter weather from Hurricane Rachel will carry into the top of next week's forecast, as remnants of rainfall move north through Eastern Idaho up to the Montana divide. We are expecting to stay on the warm side of this storm until Monday. In fact, the precipitation won't slow down until the middle to end of next week.