Recession risks are fading, business economists say, but political tensions pose threat to economy

By PAUL WISEMAN
AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — Just a quarter of business economists and analysts expect the United States to fall into recession this year. And any downturn would likely result from an external shock – such as a conflict involving China – rather than from domestic economic factors such as higher interest rates. But respondents to a National Association of Business Economics survey released Monday still expect year-over-year inflation to exceed 2.5% — above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target – through 2024.