John Cornyn makes his last stand against Ken Paxton, and other things to watch in Tuesday’s Texas runoffs

By Patrick Svitek, CNN

(CNN) — Republican Sen. John Cornyn’s uphill battle for renomination from his party reaches its conclusion Tuesday as voters head to the polls in the Texas primary runoffs.

Cornyn’s race against state Attorney General Ken Paxton was considered highly competitive until a week ago, when President Donald Trump abruptly backed Paxton and made him the front-runner for the nomination.

Now, Paxton is shifting gears to the general election, where state Rep. James Talarico awaits as the Democratic nominee. Cornyn has refused to drop out and is still fighting through Tuesday, arguing a Paxton nomination puts Republicans at risk of losing his seat in November.

There are several other notable races on Tuesday’s ballot that show off deep divides inside the two major parties. At stake are the political futures of three Democratic members of the House as well as the direction of one of the most consequential statewide offices.

Here’s what to watch:

Republican runoff for attorney general

With Paxton running for Senate, the attorney general’s seat is open for the first time since 2014. The office is highly influential in the national conservative movement and a stepping stone to higher office in Texas.

There has been a fierce runoff between US Rep. Chip Roy and state Sen. Mayes Middleton. While Trump has not endorsed between the two, they have fought extensively over their pro-Trump credentials.

Middleton, an oil-and-gas heir who is self-funding his campaign, has branded himself “MAGA Mayes” and seized on Roy’s profile as a conservative agitator who has occasionally upset Trump. Middleton has noted that Roy accused Trump of “clearly impeachable conduct” after the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, though Roy voted against impeaching Trump.

Roy, who held multiple high-profile legal jobs before joining Congress, has countered that Middleton lacks the experience to serve as the state’s top lawyer. Roy has run ads emphasizing Trump’s visit to Texas last year after catastrophic flooding in which the president said Roy is “not easy, but he’s good.”

“Yeah, I drive a hard bargain,” Roy says in one runoff ad, “because I do what’s right for Texas.”

Some of the president’s allies have sharply escalated their attacks on Roy in recent days. Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Trump’s three-time state campaign chairman, has lambasted Roy’s claims of being pro-Trump, while Trump adviser Alex Bruesewitz traveled to Texas on Friday to campaign with Middleton.

Democratic runoff for the 18th Congressional District

The national debate over generational change inside the Democratic Party factors heavily into the primary runoff between Reps. Al Green, 78, and Christian Menefee, 38. But it has been a bit more nuanced in this Houston-based district.

While Menefee as pitched himself as a next-generation leader, Green has argued he is more aligned with Democrats’ current desire for a more aggressive approach to Trump. Green has repeatedly sought to impeach Trump, dating back to the president’s first term. He was removed from the House chamber last year and censured after heckling Trump during his address to a joint session of Congress.

“I’m the real fighter,” Green said during one runoff debate, holding up campaign literature that depicted Menefee as a boxer. “This is a fake fighter.”

Menefee has lamented the nastiness of the race, saying at the debate that it is “exactly what (Texas Republicans) wanted” when they drew a district that pitted the two Black lawmakers against one another. He has defended his strategy for taking on Trump, suggesting that he prefers to “fight strategically – not to be seen, not to be heard – but to be effective.”

The runoff is a major test for the cryptocurrency industry, which views Green, a member of the House Financial Services Committee, as unfriendly to its agenda. A super PAC aligned with the industry began spending in the primary and has continued in the runoff, dropping $5 million to help Menefee and hurt Green.

Democratic runoff for the 33rd Congressional District

Another intraparty battle is playing out in the 33rd Congressional District, a solidly blue district in the Dallas area. Rep. Julie Johnson is up against former Rep. Colin Allred in a matchup triggered by the redrawing of Johnson’s current 32nd District and Allred’s decision to abandon his US Senate campaign last year.

Allred finished 11.5 percentage points ahead of Johnson in the March primary, a major warning sign for the incumbent. He had seized on her stock trading in Congress and promoted himself as a more trustworthy advocate for banning the practice.

In the runoff, Allred has won the support of Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who gave up her seat in the 33rd District to wage an unsuccessful Senate primary campaign. Allred dropped his Senate bid hours before Crockett entered the race.

One of the biggest sources of tension has been where the candidates stand on immigration under Trump. While Allred has backed abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Johnson has argued he is rebranding himself after taking a more moderate stance on immigration enforcement under President Joe Biden and in his 2024 Senate campaign.

“While Colin Allred helped Republicans open the door for ICE, Julie Johnson is taking them on,” a narrator says in one of Johnson’s runoff ads, which features text on the screen asking if Allred is “MAGA’s favorite Democrat.”

Democratic runoff for the 35th Congressional District

As recently as a month ago, the runoff for Texas’ 35th Congressional District was relatively sleepy. But after a mysterious super PAC began boosting Maureen Galindo, a sex therapist who has made antisemitic comments, the race became one of the most closely watched in the nation. Galindo faces Johnny Garcia, a public information officer for the Bexar County Sheriff’s Office.

Democrats from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on down have condemned Galindo’s rhetoric and the apparent meddling by the super PAC, Lead Left PAC. The group has spent nearly $1 million in the runoff, including on ads that promote Galindo as a fresh face for Democrats who will abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

“To embrace and uplift a fringe candidate with antisemitic — and extremely dangerous — rhetoric and views in order to win an election is beyond the pale,” House Democratic leaders said in a recent statement.

Democrats are especially interested in nominating the right person because the general election in the district, which runs from San Antonio to Austin, is expected to be competitive. It is one of the five new seats that Texas Republicans drew for themselves, and Trump would have carried it by 10 percentage points in 2024. But Democrats believe it is within reach given Trump’s decline in popularity and his plummeting standing with Latinos.

Republicans also have a runoff in the district Tuesday. They are choosing between Trump-endorsed Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran and brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz, and state Rep. Jon Lujan, a moderate Republican with a record of running in battleground districts.

Republican runoff for US Senate

Trump dealt a crushing blow to Cornyn by endorsing Paxton. Now many political observers expect Paxton to win – and potentially by a lot.

It would be a devastating outcome for Cornyn, who has spent decades in Texas politics and was a key player in Trump’s first-term agenda as Senate majority whip. Trump not only endorsed Paxton last week but also followed up Sunday with a social media post criticizing Cornyn as “very disloyal” and not supportive enough of the Save America Act, a Trump legislative priority.

Speaking with reporters at his final get-out-the-vote stop of the runoff, on Friday in Corpus Christi, Cornyn predicted he would disapprove his doubters much like he did when he finished ahead of Paxton in the March 3 primary. And while he continued to tout himself as a Trump ally, he told supporters, “Texans get to choose our senator and no one else.”

Paxton’s side is already moving on to the general election. His campaign and a pro-Paxton super PAC stopped running negative ads about Cornyn last week after Texas GOP Chairman Abraham George asked both teams to start uniting for the November election. (Cornyn refused.)

Still, some Paxton allies are trying to keep his supporters energized through the runoff.

“We know the endorsement of our president is going to give him a big leg up, but we can’t take it for granted,” Trever Nehls, a Republican candidate for House in Texas, told the crowd at a Paxton rally Wednesday in suburban Houston.

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