Major flood threat for Texas and Gulf states this week as potential tropical system supercharges heavy rain

By Meteorologist Chris Dolce, and CNN’s Kate S. Petersen

(CNN) — Texas and parts of the Gulf Coast are facing a major flood threat this week from a multi-day heavy rainfall event supercharged by a system that could become the first tropical storm of the Atlantic season as it pulls in record amounts of moisture for June.

Flood watches for the dangerous setup have been issued for more than 20 million people from central Texas to central Mississippi. Brownsville, San Antonio and Houston, Texas; Lake Charles, Louisiana; and Jackson, Mississippi, are among the cities that could see significant to life-threatening flash floods. Some water rescues have already been reported in parts of central and southern Texas.

The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Level 3 out of 4 threat of flash flooding for each day from Monday to Thursday in parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. That risk level hasn’t been issued on that many consecutive days anywhere in the United States since July 2025.

Rainfall totals this week across these areas could be as much as 5 to 10 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, the National Water Center says.

The soaking pattern is being fueled in part by moisture from the remnants of last week’s Tropical Storm Cristina from the Eastern Pacific.

There is a medium chance this system could become the Atlantic’s first tropical depression or storm of the year if it pushes offshore into the northwest Gulf by late Tuesday or Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. It would be named Arthur if it does reach tropical storm status.

The potential formation of a short-lived Arthur means tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued for the northwest Gulf Coast as soon as Tuesday.

Even if the system stays over land or moves over water and doesn’t become a tropical storm, its moisture in combination with a stalled front will cause heavy rain to fall at rates of 3 to 5 inches per hour at times through midweek. Any places where such intense rainfall persists for several hours could have widespread flooding impacts.

Areas on the immediate coast could also be impacted by gusty winds and coastal flooding.

Water rescues and flooded roads already reported in Texas

Drenching rains along the stalled front have already caused significant flooding in central and south-central Texas.

In Bandera County, Texas, responders are searching for the driver of a vehicle that was swept away by floodwater early Monday morning, Bandera County Emergency Management Coordinator Judy Lefevers told CNN.

Crews rescued another person Monday morning who was stranded in their vehicle at a low water crossing, Lefevers said, noting many crossings are flooded across the county.

One person was also rescued in Travis County after becoming stranded at a low water crossing Monday, county Director of Emergency Management Andy Brown told CNN. About 80 low water crossings in Travis County were flooded as of Monday morning, Brown said.

Responders also assisted drivers stranded at two different low water crossings in neighboring Williamson County, county spokesperson Connie Odom told CNN.

Multiple water rescues were also carried out in Bexar County Monday morning, according to Bexar County Fire Marshal and Emergency Management Coordinator Chris Lopez.

In Waco, Texas, multiple vehicles were stranded in floodwater on parts of Interstate 35 on Sunday night, forcing rescues, according to the Texas Department of Transportation.

“I have not seen flooding like that in Waco before,” Texas Game Warden Capt. Matthew Kiel told CNN, adding most low water crossings were flooded in rural areas of McLennan County, where Waco is located, as well as in Milam, Williamson and Burleson counties.

The Texas Game Wardens had completed a handful of water rescues across central Texas as of Monday morning, Kiel said.

Similar or worse impacts are likely to play out this week.

Timing the flood threat

Here’s where the biggest flooding concerns are expected in the next few days:

• Through Monday night: The Level 3 of 4 threat area includes South Texas up the coast to Houston, to western and central Louisiana and west-central Mississippi.

• Tuesday to Tuesday night: Coastal Texas to southwest Louisiana and a small part of central Mississippi are in the area with the biggest flooding concerns. Localized flooding is possible as far east as central and southern Alabama and west-central Georgia.

• Wednesday to Wednesday night: The upper Texas coast, including Houston and Galveston, and southwest Louisiana, could see the most dangerous flooding, especially where rainfall has already saturated the ground from earlier in the week.

• Thursday to Thursday night: Extreme southeast Texas to much of western and northern Louisiana and west-central Mississippi have the most significant flood risk. Localized flash-flooding is possible as far east as the Tennessee and Ohio valleys and the central Appalachians as a new cold front pulls the tropical moisture farther north and eastward.

• Friday to Friday night: The cold front could cause isolated flash flooding in much of the South, but details are still uncertain.

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