Arthur is fueling tornadoes and a rare high flood risk for the Gulf Coast

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By Meteorologists Chris Dolce, Briana Waxman, Mary Gilbert, and CNN’s Kate S. Petersen

(CNN) — Arthur has weakened to a post-tropical cyclone, but it’s still fueling a deadly flood threat and severe storms across the Gulf Coast and into the South into Saturday.

A rare Level 4 of 4 high risk of flooding rainfall was issued by the Weather Prediction Center for parts of Florida, Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana on Thursday.

It’s hard to overstate just how significant these high risk flooding events are. They are issued on fewer than 4% of days per year on average, but are responsible for 80% of all flood-related damage and 36% of all flood-related deaths, WPC research shows.

Arthur dissipated inland about 35 miles north-northeast of Galveston, Texas, on Wednesday night, according to the National Hurricane Center. But its remnant thunderstorms are pushing inland from southern Louisiana to southern Georgia, generating tornadoes and flash flood warnings in Louisiana Thursday morning.

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Flood watches for the system’s heavy rain have been issued for more than 17 million people along the northern Gulf Coast to as far east as parts of Georgia. Rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour are possible at times in some of these areas.

Heavy rainfall supercharged by tropical moisture has already left its mark even before Arthur formed — at least two people have died in floodwater in Texas so far this week.

Parts of eastern Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi have picked up more than a month’s worth of rain in just three days, with some accomplishing this in several hours because of such heavy rainfall rates.

Arthur is expected to produce another 5 to 10 inches of rain through early Saturday from central and southern parts of Louisiana east through Mississippi and Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle and western Georgia.

Flooding kills two in Texas

Some locations from southern and eastern Texas to southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi have seen over 6 inches of flooding rain so far. The highest total as of Tuesday night was just over 9 inches near Caldwell, Texas.

There have been more than 180 reports of flooding across these areas since Sunday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for 101 counties and activated additional state emergency response resources on Monday.

In Bandera County, northwest of San Antonio, a woman was killed after her vehicle was swept into a flooded creek early Monday morning. The woman called 911 and said she was “floating downstream at a high rate of speed and unable to exit her vehicle,” the sheriff’s office said in a statement. Authorities launched swift water rescue teams after losing contact with the woman. Her vehicle was found “several miles downstream” and “completely submerged,” the sheriff said.

Street flooding in Montgomery County, part of the greater Houston metro area, led to several stranded vehicles and at least 10 street closures on Tuesday, according to Montgomery County Sheriff spokesperson Miranda Hahs.

On Tuesday evening, a 15-year-old boy was found dead in Magnolia in Montgomery County, after he entered a flooded retention pond while playing with a group of teenagers near a construction roadway, the sheriff’s office said in a statement to CNN.

“After an extensive search, the juvenile was located underwater using sonar technology … this incident serves as a solemn reminder of the dangers associated with floodwaters,” the sheriff’s office said, expressing its “deepest condolences to the family.”

Drivers stranded in floodwater have required rescue or assistance in Travis, Bexar and Williamson counties since Monday, according to local authorities. About 80 low water crossings in Travis County were flooded Monday morning, county Judge Andy Brown told CNN.

Homes, buildings and roads flooded in Picayune, Mississippi, where an estimated 8 to 9 inches of rain fell over six hours on Tuesday.

Fire crews rescued a family, including an infant, from a home with knee-deep water, Picayune Fire Department Chief Joshua Abercrombie told CNN, noting floodwater was waist-deep on the road outside the home. Some drivers also got stuck in the flooding in the city, but there were no reported injuries.

“This just dumped a tremendous amount of rain,” Abercrombie said. “We’re not used to flooding in the areas we got it in.”

In neighboring Forrest County, responders rescued a driver from the top of a submerged vehicle, county Director of Emergency Management Glen Moore told CNN. The driver lost control of the vehicle and ended up in a flooded ditch, but was able to climb onto the roof before it became completely submerged.

In Shreveport, Louisiana, floodwater stranded drivers and entered a few commercial buildings and at least one building at a technical college on Monday, Caddo Parish Sheriff’s Deputy John Lane told CNN. The sheriff’s office received 52 calls for water rescues in a roughly six-hour period, but Lane didn’t know how many of those calls ultimately required a rescue. No injuries were reported, he said.

In Waco, Texas, multiple vehicles were stranded in floodwater on parts of Interstate 35 on Sunday night, forcing rescues, according to the Texas Department of Transportation. Photos posted by the city on Monday show roadways washed away by the storms.

“I have not seen flooding like that in Waco before,” Texas Game Warden Capt. Matthew Kiel told CNN Monday, noting many low water crossings in rural parts of the county were flooded and wardens had completed a handful of water rescues across central Texas.

Timing the flood threat

Here’s where the biggest flooding concerns are expected in the next few days:

• Thursday to Thursday night: Heavy rain is ongoing over eastern Louisiana and parts of Mississippi and Alabama. This batch of storms will spread as far east as Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle by afternoon and evening.

• Friday to Friday night: The cold front could cause at least isolated flash flooding in much of the South, but the most significant risk is in southern Alabama and nearby parts of southern Mississippi and the western Florida Panhandle.

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CNN’s Karina Tsui contributed to this report.