Turbocharged Otis caught forecasters and Mexico off-guard. Scientists aren’t sure why

By SETH BORENSTEIN
AP Science Writer

Hurricane Otis unexpectedly turned from mild to monster in record time, and scientists are struggling to figure out what happened and why. Usually reliable computer models and the forecasters who use them didn’t see Otis’ explosive intensification coming, creating a nightmare scenario of an unexpectedly strong storm striking at night. Acapulco was told to expect a tropical storm just below hurricane strength, but 24 hours later, Otis blasted onto the Mexican coast with 165 mph winds, the strongest landfall of any East Pacific hurricane. While Otis wasn’t expected to be so strong, it coincides with a documented trend of hurricanes rapidly intensifying more often in recent decades because of warmer water connected to climate change.