RFK Jr. may be fading, but he still could be a major factor

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

(CNN) — Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is perhaps the biggest X factor remaining in the presidential race.

If the current polling matches the final result, Kennedy – a onetime Democrat who tends to be better liked by Republicans – would earn the second-highest vote share of any independent or third-party White House candidate in the past half-century.

But can Kennedy defy the usual gravity of politics that drags down most non-major party hopefuls as the election approaches?

There are already some signs that his support may have already peaked.

Now, Kennedy, at this point, is still pulling a substantial portion of the vote. He scored 14% and 17% in May polls conducted by Quinnipiac University and Marquette University Law School respectively. That’s better than any third-party or independent candidate has polled in an individual survey at this stage in the cycle since Ross Perot in 1996.

It’s that high level of support that has caused both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump to go after Kennedy. Trump is likely reading the polls that show Kennedy is slightly more likely to pull from voters who say they would be more inclined to vote for the former president. Biden is likely aware that Kennedy voters tend to skew younger – a demographic that traditionally leans Democratic.

The attacks leveled on Kennedy seem like they may be having an effect. Take a look at polls conducted by Fox News, Quinnipiac and Reuters/Ipsos. All have trend lines dating back to late last year.

In these three polls, Kennedy’s support has dipped by an average of 5 points from their first survey to their most recent. Fox News has him going from 15% to 11%; Quinnipiac has him going from 17% to 14% (in a ballot test that includes Green Party candidate Jill Stein); Reuters/Ipsos shows him dropping from 17% to 10% among registered voters.

This isn’t to say you can’t find a poll that has Kennedy doing slightly better than he was a few months ago (see Marquette). But the long-term trend line for Kennedy is not positive.

Perhaps more concerning for the independent candidate is what’s going on under the hood. His declining support isn’t just a matter of voters now believing that backing anyone who isn’t a Democrat or Republican would be a wasted vote. This is a matter of Kennedy himself becoming less liked.

Take two polls that asked about Kennedy after he declared his independent candidacy in 2023 and then last month.

His unfavorable rating in May’s Quinnipiac poll jumped to 43% among voters, his highest on record. Kennedy’s favorable rating dropped to 25%, just one point above his all-time low in the Quinnipiac poll. His net favorability was minus-18 points. He’d previously never had a net negative favorable rating in the double digits.

Kennedy, for almost the entire campaign, had considerably higher net favorability than either Biden or Trump. This was reversed in the latest Quinnipiac poll.

Marquette’s polling showed a somewhat similar trend. In November, Kennedy had a 38% favorable and 38% unfavorable rating. Today, he’s at a 31% favorable and 45% unfavorable rating – his worst to date.

(Marquette found Kennedy with a net favorable rating of +8 points during the primary season in February, when his unfavorable rating dipped to 32%.)

Both Marquette and Quinnipiac continue to show that Kennedy is better liked by Republicans than Democrats. But even there, Kennedy has seen a clear decline in popularity.

From April to May, Kennedy’s favorable rating went from 44% among Republican voters to 31% in Quinnipiac’s polling. His unfavorable rating climbed from 20% to 30%.

The dip in Kennedy’s popularity isn’t the biggest surprise. The last time Trump faced off against an unpopular Democrat (Hillary Clinton in 2016), Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson looked like he could become the first independent or third-party candidate since Perot to take at least 5% of the presidential popular vote.

Johnson ended up fading down the stretch, getting a little bit more than 3%. That was still the highest percentage for a non-major presidential candidate since Perot in 1996.

This year, Kennedy is consistently polling higher than Johnson was in 2016.

But Johnson had access to the Libertarian ballot line and was on the ballot in all 50 states. Kennedy, however, is currently nowhere near securing official ballot access in all 50 states.

So all these national polls that indicate high levels of support for Kennedy aren’t telling the full story if he won’t be an option on many voters’ ballots.

Of course, this election isn’t going to be won through the national popular vote. It will be won state-by-state through the Electoral College.

How many ballots Kennedy gets on in the six closest states that Biden won in 2020 (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) will ultimately be what determines his role in this election. Getting on the ballot isn’t always easy for an independent, as Kennedy has learned in his ballot battle with Nevada.

Still, this election is expected to be a close one, especially in the northern battleground states. Any share of the vote that Kennedy takes away from Biden or Trump could end up being crucial.

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