New apparent Trump assassination bid is another dark moment with unpredictable political consequences

Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN

(CNN) — There’s no political playbook for how to deal with another apparent assassination attempt against a major-party presidential candidate within weeks of an election.

Yet that’s where the rival campaigns now find themselves after what looks like a second attempt to kill Republican nominee Donald Trump in the latest twist to a political season defying precedent and highlighting the nation’s deep polarization.

Twice within two months, America has narrowly avoided the tragedy of seeing a major political figure assassinated during an election season — and the toxic forces that such an outrage could unleash in a country wracked by visceral partisan divides.

That such incidents happen at all speak to the undercurrent of violence that is a constant shadow over American politics, one that is exacerbated by the easy availability of firearms. Both nominees now address outdoor crowds from behind bulletproof screens. There will now be fresh fears that a tempestuous period running up to Election Day could take the country further down a dark road.

After decades without an assassination attempt against a high-level executive branch official, a haunting reality has been revived this year: that those who offer themselves for the highest office are potentially putting their lives on the line.

Quick reactions from Trump’s friends and foes

In his most expansive reaction to what happened, Trump posted on his Truth Social network Sunday evening about what he described as “certainly an interesting day!”

“I want to thank the U.S. Secret Service, Sheriff Ric Bradshaw and his Office of brave and dedicated Patriots, and, all of Law Enforcement, for the incredible job done today at Trump International in keeping me, as the 45th President of the United States, and the Republican Nominee in the upcoming Presidential Election, SAFE,” Trump wrote. “THE JOB DONE WAS ABSOLUTELY OUTSTANDING. I AM VERY PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN!”

Vice President Kamala Harris, her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and President Joe Biden all quickly expressed relief that a person suspected of planning to target Trump at one of his Florida golf courses was spotted before he could get off a shot and that the former president was safe. Harris said she was briefed on the incident and wrote on social media: “I am glad he is safe. Violence has no place in America.”

As crass as it may be to consider political ramifications in the immediate aftermath of an apparent assassination attempt, everything in America is politicized within minutes — especially with 50 days left until a close election.

Trump — who within seconds of surviving his first, much closer assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, stood up and said, “fight, fight, fight” — quickly released a fundraising email on Sunday afternoon that read, “I am Safe and Well!”

“Nothing will slow me down. I will NEVER SURRENDER!” Trump wrote in the email that linked to a site allowing supporters to donate.

And one of the ex-president’s top allies, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, released a statement reprising the idea Trump was spared by divine providence, which was a recurrent theme at the Republican National Convention. The House GOP conference chair suggested that after what had happened, the country now had a duty to elect Trump. “Thankfully, God continues to watch over President Trump. As Americans we must unite behind him in November to protect our republic and bring peace back to the world,” she said.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, after visiting the former president at his Mar-a-Lago resort on Sunday, also suggested that Trump had benefited from divine intervention and played into the narrative that Trump is unbeatable. “No leader (in) American history has endured more attacks and remained so strong and resilient. He is unstoppable.”

That sense of Trump being protected by God animated his supporters’ feeling at the Milwaukee convention that he was destined for victory. Such assumptions were dampened, however, when Biden shelved his reelection bid, allowing Harris to jump in and transform the contest.

More questions for the Secret Service

The man detained in the apparent assassination attempt had been spotted by the Secret Service several holes ahead of the former president at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Stefanik asked how “an assassin was allowed to get this close to President Trump again?” She wrote: “There continues to be a lack of answers for the horrific assassination attempt in Pennsylvania and we expect there to be a clear explanation of what happened today in Florida.” The New York Republican’s questioning of the Secret Service is likely to foreshadow debate in the coming days about the level of the former president’s protection — especially given what happened in Butler.

Trump has already suggested, without evidence, that the Biden administration and Harris were complicit in the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania because he claims they weaponized the Justice Department against him. But all of Trump’s criminal problems have proceeded through regular order in the courts, and there is no evidence that the White House is in any way involved.

The second apparent assassination attempt comes against the backdrop of a turbulent campaign that has defied convention and predictions. For the first time since 1968, a sitting president folded his reelection campaign within months of the election, reluctantly making way for his vice president, who has a chance to become the first Black woman and South Asian commander in chief. The Republican nominee is a convicted felon who is facing multiple criminal charges over his unprecedented attempt to stay in power after losing the last election. If he is returned to the White House, Trump would be only the second president who lost reelection to win a nonconsecutive second term.

The ex-president’s actions in the coming days will be closely watched. After the first assassination attempt, the former president called on the country to come together. But his unity pledge didn’t last much longer than the first third of his speech at the Republican National Convention, which degenerated into the characteristic divisiveness on which he built his political career.

Trump has also repeatedly ignored the advice of senior Republicans and his campaign team to stick to a sharp, concise argument against Harris. They’d like him to focus on her role in the Biden administration’s economic policy at a time when many voters are still struggling with high prices despite a lowering of the inflation rate. So even if his aides counsel him to renew his national unity theme, there’s no guarantee Trump will listen or consider it in his political interests.

Another apparent attempt on his life is likely to have some level of personal impact on the former president. In the days after narrowly cheating death or serious injury in Pennsylvania when a bullet grazed his ear, Trump seemed chastened. But ever since, he has returned to his rambunctious self and, if anything, his rhetoric has become even more extreme. He’s recently been warning his political opponents that he will turn the law against them and lock them up if he considers the election fraudulent, and he has doubled down on his baseless claims that the last election was stolen.

In the immediate aftermath of Sunday’s incident, the focus of most Trump opponents was on maintaining calm at a volatile moment. There can be no justification in a democracy for attempting to silence any political figure by violence. At the same time, however, in the coming days, there will be debate about the extent to which the former president — a uniquely inflammatory figure — has helped to stoke the nation’s divides.

Earlier this weekend, for example, the ex-president and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, had been heightening political tensions. Both Republicans have highlighted baseless claims that Haitian refugees in Springfield, Ohio, have been stealing and eating pets. Trump’s opponents have warned that his continued racial demagoguery is putting lives at risk.

In a contentious interview on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, Vance insisted that the claims about the Haitian migrants — who are in the United States legally — were validated by complaints from some of his constituents. And far from backing away from the story — despite testimony from multiple local officials that there’s no truth to the rumor — Vance angrily condemned suggestions that recent bomb threats against the city had anything to do with him and Trump escalating the claims. He told Dana Bash: “This town has suffered terribly under the problem — under the policies of Kamala Harris.”

But Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, asked on ABC on Sunday whether he had seen any evidence of the pet-eating rumors, said, “No. Absolutely not.” The Ohio governor added that the Haitian migrants, whom Trump threatened on Friday to deport to Venezuela, were in the country legally.

In normal circumstances, an apparent assassination attempt against a presidential candidate might be expected to unleash a surge of sympathy that could translate into a political boost. But the latest near-miss for Trump comes at a moment when the race with Harris is neck-and-neck. While both candidates are fighting over perhaps several hundred thousand movable voters in swing states, it’s not clear how much room remains for changing perceptions about Trump, who has been a polarizing figure ever since his 2015 launch of his first national campaign.

The former president is all but certain to use the latest events to reinforce his baseless claim that he’s a victim of persecution meant to keep him from power. But it’s too early to say whether the second apparent assassination attempt will have greater political impact than the first.

Ultimately, it’s going to be up to voters to sort out this unpredictable and dangerous campaign season.

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