US at risk of running out of missiles if another war breaks out after depleting stockpile in Iran operations
This image from video provided by US Central Command shows a missile being launched from a US Navy ship in support of Operation Epic Fury on February 28.
By Zachary Cohen, Natasha Bertrand, CNN
(CNN) — The US military has significantly depleted its stockpile of key missiles during the war with Iran and created a “near-term risk” of running out of ammunition in a future conflict should one arise in the next few years, according to experts and three people familiar with recent internal Defense Department stockpile assessments.
Over the last seven weeks of war, the US military has expended at least 45% of its stockpile of Precision Strike Missiles; at least half of its inventory of THAAD missiles, which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles; and nearly 50% of its stockpile of Patriot air defense interceptor missiles, according to a new analysis conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Those numbers closely align with classified Pentagon data about US stockpiles, according to the sources familiar with the assessment.
Earlier this year the Pentagon signed a series of contracts that would help expand missile production, but the delivery timeline to replace these systems is three to five years even with the increased capacity, the CSIS experts and the sources said.
In the short term, the US likely maintains enough bombs and missiles to continue combat operations against Iran, in any scenario, should the shaky ceasefire fail to hold. But the number of critical munitions remaining in US stockpiles is no longer sufficient to confront a near-peer adversary, like China, and it will likely take years before the inventory of those weapons returns to pre-war levels, the CSIS analysis concludes.
“The high munitions expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific,” Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps Colonel and one of the authors of the CSIS report, told CNN. “It will take one to four years to replenish these inventories and several years after that to expand them to where they need to be.”
In a statement to CNN, chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said that the military “has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing.”
“Since President Trump took office, we have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests,” he said.
The US military has also expended approximately 30% of its Tomahawk missile stockpile; more than 20% of its stockpile of long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles; and approximately 20% of its SM-3 and SM-6 missiles, according to the analysis and the sources. It would take around four to five years to replace those systems.
The missile math tracking the depleted stockpile stands in stark contrast to President Donald Trump’s recent claim that that the US is not running short of any weaponry – even as he requested additional funding for missiles due to the Iran war’s impact on existing stockpiles.
“We’re asking for a lot of reasons, beyond even what we’re talking about in Iran,” Trump said last month, referring to the request for additional Pentagon funding. “Munitions in particular, at the high end we have a lot, but we’re preserving it.”
“It’s a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top,” he added.
The Trump administration’s recent agreements with private companies should boost production, but near-term deliveries of these key munitions are relatively low because of small orders in the past, the CSIS report notes.
Before the war began, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and other military leaders warned Trump that a protracted military campaign could impact US weapons stockpiles – particularly those that support Israel and Ukraine, CNN previously reported.
And since the start of the conflict, Democrats on Capitol Hill have voiced unease about the amount of munitions used and what it could mean for US defense in the Middle East and beyond.
“The Iranians do have the ability to make a lot of Shahed drones, ballistic missiles, medium range, short range and they’ve got a huge stockpile,” Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly said last month. “So at some point … this becomes a math problem and how can we resupply air defense munitions. Where are they going to come from?”
The-CNN-Wire
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