Get ready for a 30% jump in heating oil costs this winter as Iran war drives up prices

By Tami Luhby, CNN

(CNN) — Winter hasn’t even started yet, but Tommy Cole Jr. is already very worried about how he’ll afford to heat his home when the temperatures drop.

The Marine Corps veteran has been closely watching the cost of home heating oil, which has soared recently along with crude oil, diesel fuel and gasoline prices, as the US-Iran war drags on.

Last year, he struggled to keep his family of five warm in their rental home in Winchester, Massachusetts. Heating oil costs less than $4 a gallon for most of the season, but Cole still had to turn to federal assistance several times to help him fill the tank and to use space heaters, which sent his electric bill skyrocketing.

Cole, who is applying for veterans’ disability benefits, is counting on getting more help from the federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, known as LIHEAP. The heating oil that will soon be delivered to keep his hot water system operating will cost $5.56 a gallon.

“I’m going to be watching the door like a hawk for the mailman to drop the (LIHEAP) application,” said Cole, 46, whose wife runs an early childhood center. “As soon as it comes, I’m filling it out. I’m going to be the first one.”

Those like Cole, who heat their homes with oil, are forecast to pay a whopping 31.3% more to keep warm this winter, according to the latest analysis from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA). These customers will pay an estimated $2,300 for the season, which runs from mid-November to mid-March.

Other Americans won’t be squeezed quite as much, though they are also expected to face another year of increased heating costs, NEADA found. And it comes at a time when many folks are contending with higher costs for gas, groceries and other necessities.

Overall, winter heating costs are forecast to jump 8.7% — more than double the rate of inflation, according to NEADA. Although the season should be on the warmer side due to El Niño, the rising prices of electricity and heating oil mean customers need to prepare for bigger bills.

The cost of electric heat is projected to increase 9%, while heating with natural gas is expected to rise by 5.8% in price. Nearly 90% of US households use these two forms of heat. While oil heat is only used by 4% of households nationwide, it is far more prevalent in New England and Mid-Atlantic states.

Over the past five years, winter heating costs are up roughly 24%, NEADA found.

Heating oil dilemma

Many oil heat users typically make their first fuel purchases for the winter in September or October, said Mark Wolfe, NEADA’s executive director. But they may be wondering when is the best time to fill up, especially since prices usually rise gradually over the winter.

“You’re facing a dilemma: Do you buy your heating oil now? Do you wait till next month and hope that prices can come down? At the same time, prices could be going up,” he said.

NEADA has asked Congress for an additional $3 billion in LIHEAP funding to cover rising heating oil and electricity costs. The program received $4.1 billion for the current fiscal year, which ends September 30.

At one social services agency in Massachusetts, oil-heat clients are already asking how much assistance they’ll be eligible to receive, said Liz Berube, executive director at Fall River-based Citizens for Citizens. But she doesn’t know the amount since the federal government has yet to announce each state’s award, and community action programs have not yet asked state lawmakers to chip in more funding, which they often do.

Plus, the LIHEAP program doesn’t start until late October, she noted.

Berube is worried she won’t be able to provide as much aid to applicants this year since oil heat prices are so much higher. Last winter, the agency helped 2,160 oil-heat customers, who received just over $1,000 in assistance each, on average. The funds, which go directly to the oil-heat dealers, were enough to fill just over a tank.

However, if heating oil prices remain above $5 a gallon, that aid would only be enough for about three-quarters of a tank.

What’s more, dealers are telling her that they may no longer be able to afford to deliver just 100 gallons of heating oil — the typical minimum — because of record-high diesel prices for their trucks. That could really affect customers.

“Someone could need close to $700 or $800 just for one delivery,” she said.

Preparing for bigger bills

Some Northeast residents have been trying to prepare. Dan Pfoltzer, a 75-year-old school bus driver who rents a small home in Nassau, New York, has been warily watching oil heat prices for months. His neighbor recently told him that her fuel bill doubled from last year.

Pfoltzer has been trying to pay down his debts, but lately, he’s been socking away money to cover the expected increase in his winter heating tab. He skipped visiting summer fairs and taking a vacation to New York City, where he likes going to Radio City Music Hall and enjoying “a good meal.”

“I’ve rearranged my budget heavily so I can absorb the added cost, which really angers me,” said Pfoltzer.

Oil heat customers aren’t the only ones worried about their winter heating bills. Those who heat with electricity have also seen their costs rise.

During the winter, Julian, a 33-year-old sculptor who lives and works in a converted factory in Brooklyn, New York, receives electricity bills that are as much as $800 a month. (Julian asked CNN not to use his last name for privacy reasons.)

Though he was awarded $325 in monthly LIHEAP aid, he is still behind in his payments to his utility company.

He keeps the thermostat in the low 60s and tries to keep warm using a heated blanket and bed cover. This winter, he will also try putting plastic on the windows.

“I’ve just accepted that it’s really cold,” said Julian. “It’s added to my stress.”

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