Brewing nor’easter to stir up days of trouble for the Outer Banks and Mid-Atlantic

By Meteorologists Mary Gilbert, Tyler Ory, CNN

(CNN) — Strong winds, pounding seas and coastal flood threats will be near-constant companions for parts of North Carolina up through the Chesapeake Bay area this weekend as a nor’easter that’s expected to linger well into next week starts to take shape.

This budding storm will not follow in the exact footsteps or reach the same strength as last month’s nor’easter. Still, it’s not going to be a pleasant few days for the areas impacted by the new storm.

Here’s what to expect.

Wind and rain

Wind will be the most widespread and long-lasting threat. Windy conditions will start to pick up later Saturday afternoon after a potent cold front slices through the Mid-Atlantic and eastern North Carolina and brings a major cooldown and some rain.

Frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible once the front moves through the Chesapeake Bay and inland eastern North Carolina. Stronger gusts up to 50 mph are possible for North Carolina’s Outer Banks.

Winds will worsen once the area of low pressure that will become the coastal storm starts to develop off the North Carolina coast Sunday. Gusts up to 60 mph are possible in parts of the Outer Banks by Sunday afternoon, with gusts approaching 50 mph farther inland in the state and up into parts of coastal Virginia and Maryland.

These winds could bring down trees or power lines and lead to some power outages.

This increase in wind speed is due to an interaction between the developing storm and an area of high pressure in southeastern Canada. These two will squeeze the air between them, sending faster winds at the coast.

The stronger the storm gets, the higher the wind speeds will climb. This budding storm isn’t expected to become super powerful, but its proximity to the coast elevates its wind threat.

The nor’easter will likely be more organized by Monday afternoon, which is also when wind speeds will start to peak for the coast and rain will start to spread over the region. Flash flooding isn’t a significant threat, but wind-driven rain will not be pleasant to be out and about in.

Gusts of more than 60 mph are possible in parts of the Outer Banks with 40 to 50 mph gusts creeping toward the Interstate 95 corridor in North Carolina and southern Virginia. Farther north along the coast, gusts to 30 mph are possible in parts of coastal Delaware and New Jersey even as the storm remains near the Carolinas.

Similarly strong winds are possible on Tuesday in North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic and may ease only slightly by Wednesday or Thursday. The forecast for the latter half of next week is more uncertain and will depend heavily on exactly how long the coastal storm meanders near the Carolinas.

Regardless, breezy to windy conditions along the coast could continue into next weekend.

Coastal flooding

This is another one of the storm’s prolonged threats. At least minor coastal flooding could start as early as Sunday morning’s high tide in parts of the Outer Banks and up through the Chesapeake Bay, as strong winds shove more water ashore.

Water levels will rise higher by Sunday afternoon’s high tide and some areas could experience moderate coastal flooding at that time, especially around the Virginia-North Carolina border.

Further instances of moderate flooding are likely during Monday’s high tides and a similar rhythm of issues will continue through at least midweek. Some spots could see major flooding depending on exactly how close the storm hugs the coast.

Hand-in-hand with coastal flood threats, rough seas and larger waves are likely to pound the coast later this weekend and well into next week.

Days of this relentless wave action could worsen ongoing beach erosion, especially in parts of the Outer Banks, where homes have crumbled into the sea in recent years and roadways have washed away.

Will this storm be tropical?

Once the coastal storm forms off the coast of the Carolinas, it’s forecast to linger there for several days and potentially up to a week.

This storm will not be a tropical system when it forms: Tropical storms are fueled by warm water, whereas this one will get its start along the same cold front that ushers in this weekend’s cooldown.

However, the longer it lingers over warm water located just off the coast, a chance starts to creep in that it could become a hybrid system — fed by both the ocean heat and energy in the atmosphere.

The storm is unlikely to become tropical, but it’s not impossible later next week. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a 20% chance of subtropical development — which would make this a hybrid system — over the next seven days.

If it did, the impacts wouldn’t change much; the National Hurricane Center would just have to keep an eye on it.

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