Scientific model being used to guide Idaho policy

BOISE, Idaho (KIFI/KIDK)-As part of its COVID-19 planning, the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, the University of Idaho, and four other colleges and universities have developed a scientific model to help drive data-driven policy decisions and effective mitigation strategies.

The Governor's Coronavirus Working Group says the model shows that continued mitigation efforts are effective in slowing spread of the virus.

"Based on those, we can conclude that continued mitigation efforts are effective in slowing the spread of COVID-19, reducing contact rates, delaying the peak of the outbreak, and flattening the curve," said DHW Director Dave Jeppesen. "The model was developed to simulate the effect of policy decisions such as the Governor's stay-home order, and not necessarily to estimate the number of hospitalizations, ICU admissions, or deaths from COVID-19."

The department says that when mitigation efforts are stopped, the model shows a second wave of infections would occur unless testing and contact tracing increases.