A big change could come to the US economy in September

By CNN Newsource

Published July 12, 2024 6:30 AM

Analysis by Krystal Hur, CNN

New York (CNN) — A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.

Americans seeking relief from high borrowing rates might not have to wait much longer.

US consumer prices fell in June for the first time since the early months of the pandemic. Fresh data Thursday revealed that consumer prices dropped 0.1% from May. On an annual basis, inflation eased to 3% last month from 3.3% in May.

The welcome slowdown in inflation has led investors to move up their bets for when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates. Wall Street’s expectations for a September rate cut rose to roughly 93% on Thursday from 73% the day before, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

“A September rate cut should be a done deal at this point,” wrote Ron Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, in a Thursday note.

BNP Paribas economists on Thursday updated its base case to reflect a rate cut in September, citing the mix of June inflation and jobs data. They expect two quarter-point cuts in 2024.

The Fed has a dual mandate: Keep prices stable and unemployment levels low. The central bank began hiking interest rates in 2022 to tame wayward inflation and has held them steady at the current 23-year high since last July.

Thursday’s data, coupled with a cooling but resilient labor market, is an encouraging sign that the Fed will be able to fulfill its dual mandate and begin easing sky-high rates in September. The US economy added 206,000 jobs in June, lower than a downwardly revised tally of 215,000 jobs in May, and the unemployment rate topped 4% for the first time since November 2021. New applications for unemployment benefits have also ticked higher in recent weeks.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t give hints about when the central bank could start cutting rates during his congressional testimony earlier this week. But he acknowledged that inflation has moderated and that the labor market is “strong, but not overheated” — a departure from even just a few months ago, when inflation showed signs of reaccelerating and the jobs market remained red-hot.

Still, the Fed will have to parse more data before its September meeting, which could alter its trajectory. Some economists worry that if the Fed doesn’t cut rates by then, cracks could begin to deepen in the labor market. Some investors are concerned that the economy could weaken dangerously even before then.

A September rate cut “may not be the magic elixir some investors are seeking,” wrote Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, in a Monday note.

Prices fell in June for the first time since the start of the pandemic

Americans weighed down by fast-rising prices for three years just received more encouraging news on the inflation front, reports my colleague Alicia Wallace.

The Consumer Price Index, a measurement of the average change in prices for a commonly purchased basket of goods and services, dropped 0.1% from May, which helped to slow the annual rate of inflation to 3% from 3.3% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest report.

Falling gas prices as well as a drop in new and used car prices helped to usher in the first month-on-month decline since May 2020, BLS data showed. On an annual basis, consumer prices are increasing at their slowest pace since June 2023, matching the lowest annual rate since early 2021.

Excluding energy and food prices, a closely watched “core” index of underlying inflation also slowed more than expected. The core CPI rose 0.1% from May — its slowest pace since August 2021 — nudging the annual rate of core inflation lower, to 3.3% from 3.4%, and marking a fresh three-year low.

Why fast food value menus aren’t as good a deal as you might think

Value is the new buzzword at fast-food chains nationwide, reports my colleague Elisabeth Buchwald.

After rising prices turned customers off, the restaurants recently responded by unveiling value menus.

For instance, McDonald’s has a $5 value meal, which includes a McDouble cheeseburger or a McChicken sandwich, plus small french fries, 4-piece chicken nuggets and a small soft drink.

At Taco Bell, you can now get two different kinds of tacos, a five-layer burrito, chips with nacho cheese sauces and a medium drink for $7. That’s 55% cheaper than ordering the items individually.

Like McDonald’s, Burger King is offering a $5 meal bundle where customers can select one of three kinds of burgers to pair with chicken nuggets and a beverage.

But just how much value is there in these kinds of “value” meals?

Well, actually, not as much as you may think, since prices for many key ingredients used in value meals are coming down. In other words: You’re paying the going rate (or more).