Can Syria’s Islamist rebels govern the country? Their rule in Idlib offers clues

By Mostafa Salem, CNN

(CNN) — When Syria’s rebel-appointed prime minister sat down with officials from the ousted Assad regime for the first time on Tuesday, the backdrop included the flag of the Syrian revolution alongside another bearing the Islamic declaration of faith that is often displayed by jihadists.

The choice of optics for the rebels’ first publicized cabinet meeting to discuss the transition of power since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime sparked controversy, with sceptics taking to social media to criticize the move.

The rebels may have taken note. In a later televised interview with Al Jazeera, caretaker Prime Minister Mohammad Al Bashir, who until this week ruled the small, conservative province of Idlib on the rebels’ behalf, appeared only with the new Syrian flag.

How the rebels governed Idlib, in northwest Syria, offers insight into how they might rule the country. Experts and residents of Idlib describe their governance as pragmatic and influenced by both internal and external pressure, with efforts to distance themselves from a jihadist past and gain international acceptance. However, their rule was far from democratic or liberal. Governing a large, diverse nation like Syria, they warn, will be an entirely different challenge.

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), the Islamist group that led the rebel offensive to topple the Assad regime and is proscribed as a terrorist organization by the United States, has opted to rule from the shadows. Jolani, who now uses his real name Ahmad al-Sharaa, picked a technocrat – Bashir – to lead Syria in the interim. He has said his officials gained valuable experience while governing Idlib but acknowledged that may not be enough.

“They (rebels) started from nothing, Idlib is small and without resources but thank God we were able to do really good things in the past… their experience is not zero and there are (areas) they were successful in,” Jolani told Mohammed Jalali, Assad’s prime minister, in a meeting on Monday to discuss the transfer of power. “However, we cannot do without the old (guard) and we have to benefit from them.”

In just 13 days, Jolani’s ministers went from ruling the small province of Idlib to aspiring to govern Syria following its first regime change in six decades. Experts and residents who lived under the rebel-led Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) say the inexperienced cabinet will need to significantly adapt if they are to lead the transitional period effectively.

Dr. Walid Tamer, a resident of Idlib who witnessed the province’s transformation under rebel rule and said he personally interacted with Jolani, commended the SSG’s governance in Idlib, saying freedom of expression was protected. But he cautioned that the rebels aren’t prepared to rule the rest of the country.

“You went from governing Idlib to governing an entire nation… I don’t think the capabilities of the government we saw are enough for the task of governing the whole of Syria,” said Tamer, the head of northern Syria’s Free Doctors Union who describes himself as a liberal.

Idlib was “very safe” under the SSG, he said, adding that the rebels placed no restrictions on travel and movement inside the HTS-controlled province.

“Syria as a whole was a difficult place to live in, but the (SSG) never interfered in your personal life. Products were available and no limitations were imposed on your clothing or how you lived your life,” he said.

Life in the province was not one of prosperity, however. Abdel Latif Zakoor, a resident of Idlib who lived under rebel rule but has now moved to Turkey, told CNN the economic conditions under the SSG were “very difficult.”

“There wasn’t enough work, and a lot of people just stayed at home,” he said.

Taking control

When Jolani expanded his influence in Idlib in 2017, he eliminated rival Islamist groups and backed a new project to install a civilian government made up of local technocrats and academics, breaking from other jihadist methods that saw religious coercion under the rule of the sword in territories they captured.

“Before the Salvation Government you had many different factions that had their own courts of justice, prisons and social services,” Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst who has researched HTS for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group think tank, told CNN. “It imposed itself on other factions and took out their governing responsibilities.”

Upon its establishment in 2017, the SSG issued a communique outlining four principles, one of which was that Islamic Sharia law is the “sole source of legislation,” emphasizing the need to “maintain the people’s Syrian and Islamic identity,” Al Jazeera reported.

The SSG operated as a functional government, holding publicized cabinet meetings with suited officials, issuing press statements and overseeing eleven ministries, including justice, sports, and education. It collected taxes, managed Idlib’s limited resources to govern 4 million people, and coordinated with international humanitarian groups to deliver aid to the 3 million displaced people in the region.

But the government wasn’t democratically elected, with ministers appointed through the approval of the shura, or consultative council, made up of prominent local figures, some of whom were selected by Jolani’s HTS. No women served in SSG leadership positions during its seven years of rule.

“It’s an Islamic governance in a technocratic way. What they wanted to do is control how religion is understood and how it’s implemented,” said Drevon.

A United Nations report from 2022 painted a grim picture of what life under HTS’ leadership was like.

“People were detained following comments made in private conversations pertaining to the cost of living or religious matters,” the UN Human Rights Council report on Syria said. “These comments were qualified as slander and blasphemy, with the latter leading to a sentence of one year of imprisonment.” Authorities “continued to arrest women for being ‘inappropriately’ dressed, and for non-compliance with entertainment-related bans.”

Tamer, who said he negotiated with HTS and SSG officials over medical matters, said that over the years, Jolani took a back seat in the daily affairs of the government and gave it more agency, only intervening on larger issues that endangered his group’s influence.

Rule by decree

Lacking a constitution or an elected legislature, the rebels ruled Idlib by decree, setting up a hybrid civil-Islamic court structure that included defense lawyers, a prosecutor and an appeals process.

Jolani was pragmatic in adapting to the requirements of the society he ruled over, Drevon said. Responding to the public’s displeasure, he slowly phased out the strict application of Islamic law, turned a blind eye to gender mixing and smoking and allowed protests against him. A Sharia law-based morality unit was disbanded but women were encouraged to cover their hair.

“It was a successful project in practice because there was also some buy in from the population. It was stable, the economy was working better (than the rest of Syria) and even the type of authoritarianism was nothing compared to Assad’s family,” Drevon said.

But there were exceptions. Last year, the SSG issued a “morality decree” instructing children to adhere to an Islamic dress code and limiting music in educational facilities. Jolani intervened to freeze the decree, fearing that an international uproar could affect aid donations, Drevon said.

Another issue was the arrest and alleged torture of dissidents that caused significant protests against Jolani in Idlib last year. Jolani told CNN last week that abuses in prisons “were not done under our orders or directions” and that HTS had already penalized the perpetrators.

Drevon said that Syria’s transition to democracy is going to be a lengthy and complicated process after six decades of dictatorship.

“It was a very new form of governance (in Idlib),” he said. “You can’t expect an armed group in war controlling a region that’s very tiny to create a social democratic system… They had to be realistic on what’s possible at war. Syria hasn’t had democracy in five, six decades. You will not become democratic in one week.”

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