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A US House special election in Texas is set to narrow the GOP majority even further

By Molly English, CNN

(CNN) — Voters on Saturday will select one of two Democrats in a runoff election to fill a vacant US House seat, further narrowing Speaker Mike Johnson’s already razor-thin Republican majority.

Texas’ 18th Congressional District has been empty since March following former Rep. Sylvester Turner’s death — and 13 of the last 18 months in total. It will soon be filled by one of two Democrats who advancing to Saturday’s runoff election: former Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee or former Houston City Council Member Amanda Edwards.

The current partisan breakdown in the chamber is 218 Republicans to 213 Democrats, following the resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and the death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa. Johnson will be able to lose only one Republican on any party-line vote once either Menefee or Edwards is sworn in.

The first round of the special election to replace Greene takes place in March with a potential runoff to follow in April. There’s also an April special election for the New Jersey seat vacated by Democrat Mikie Sherrill after she was elected governor.

A long-running saga in Houston

A new representative in Texas’ storied 18th is a brief respite from a saga that began when longtime Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee died in office in July 2024. Turner, who was elected to serve the next full term in the district, also died in office just over two months into serving in the House. The seat has been vacant since then.

Redistricting has also jumbled Saturday’s runoff election, which will happen under old district lines, in the minds of voters.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and state Republicans last year kicked off what ended up being the first domino of a nationwide mid-decade redistricting effort.

Abbott signed into law a new map that aimed to give the GOP at least five more House seats in 2026. The 18th District was made even more Democratic and absorbed much of the current 9th District, which became Republican-leaning.

A federal court then blocked Texas from using its new map in the 2026 midterms, ruling that it is likely an unconstitutional gerrymander, but the US Supreme Court overruled that decision, leaving the map in place for 2026.

A primary election for a full two-year term starting in 2027, under new district lines, is slated for March 3. Both Menefee and Edwards confirmed to CNN that they will be running in that primary regardless of Saturday’s results.

In a statement to CNN last week, Menefee said that although he is “fully committed” to March’s primary, he’s focused on “running through the tape” on Saturday.

“Because of the way President Trump and Governor Abbott pushed through these new congressional maps, we’re in a rare situation where campaigning for the special election and the March primary is taking place all at once,” Menefee said.

“We have really focused our attention, not in trying to run a double race in terms of the messaging, but instead one race at a time from a messaging standpoint,” Edwards said in an interview with CNN, emphasizing that redistricting and the overlapping runoff and primary have been points of confusion for voters.

They’ll face a tough challenge from longtime Rep. Al Green, who was first elected to Congress in 2004 and served alongside Jackson Lee. Green’s home has been placed under the new map into the 18th District instead of his current 9th District — and he has vowed to run in the new 18th.

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