Trump confronts his 3 main options on Iran — from diplomacy to trying to topple a regime

By Kevin Liptak, Kylie Atwood, Zachary Cohen, Jennifer Hansler, CNN

(CNN) — After ordering the largest American military buildup in the Middle East since the onset of the Iraq War, President Donald Trump now has a decision to make on Iran.

The options before him now appear relatively well established, confirmed in vague terms by the president himself during informal question-and-answer sessions over the last several weeks and described in more detail by people familiar with the matter. They range widely, with some carrying significant risks, and he’s hearing sometimes conflicting advice from allies, advisers and foreign counterparts.

• Trump could hold off ordering any military action at all, hoping the presence of two aircraft carriers, dozens of warships and hundreds of warplanes off Iran’s coasts might convince its leaders to make a deal.
• He could order a limited strike on military targets to drive home his demands that Iran abandon any ability to build nuclear weapons.
• He could approve an attack intended to topple Iran’s leaders, even if what replaces them remains unknown — the more maximalist approach.

“Everything that has been written about a potential War with Iran has been written incorrectly, and purposefully so,” Trump declared on Truth Social on Monday. “I am the one that makes the decision, I would rather have a Deal than not but, if we don’t make a Deal, it will be a very bad day for that Country and, very sadly, its people.”

Less clear is what, precisely, Trump is looking to accomplish. It’s also a bit of a mystery why he is considering action right now or what legal authorities he might rely upon to launch the second attack on Iran in the span of eight months.

He’s made little attempt to build a public case for or against a potential war. Behind the scenes, Trump is hearing differing opinions on whether to order new strikes or — given the serious risk of becoming mired in a prolonged conflict — allow diplomatic efforts to continue.

Here are the paths Trump is considering, and how the administration is thinking about each one.

Option 1: Let diplomacy play out

Top White House officials continue to say Trump’s preference is to secure a deal with Iran that avoids any type of military confrontation.

His envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner have been conducting indirect talks with Iranian officials over the last several weeks and will return to Geneva, Switzerland, on Thursday for another round. Both men have encouraged the president to allow time to see whether a deal is possible, though Witkoff said Saturday that Trump is “curious” as to why Iran hasn’t “capitulated” in negotiations.

Each side has drawn red lines — and some directly conflict. Trump says Iran should not be allowed to enrich any uranium. Iran says that is its right, and insists its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes.

The Iranians are still working on a proposal that might bridge that gap and expect to share it with mediators from Oman before Thursday’s high-stakes talks, according to a source familiar with the matter.

“This Thursday will decide everything, a war or a deal,” said a regional source familiar with the talks.

Trump launched surprise strikes on Iran’s nuclear program last year ahead of another scheduled round of US-Iran talks, but this time regional sources expect the president’s team will go to the table in Geneva before taking any military action, based on discussions with US officials.

Still, days before the talks, it did not appear the Iranian proposal would include a commitment to zero uranium enrichment, sources said. The demand has long been a nonstarter for 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, who will approve or veto any deal.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, made clear on Sunday that zero enrichment was not on the table.

“We have developed this technology by ourselves, by our scientists, and it’s very dear to us, because we have paid a lot — we have paid a huge expense for that,” Araghchi said on CBS. “That is now a matter of dignity and pride for Iranians, and we are not going to give it up.”

Furthermore, based on discussions with Iran in recent days, it does not appear the regime is prepared to make any offers to the US that are substantially different from what was discussed between the two sides last year leading up to the US strikes, a source said.

Still, both the US and Iran seem to be trying to be more “creative” in negotiations, a second regional source familiar with the matter said, but questions remain about whether a deal can be reached. One idea that’s been floated is allowing Iran to enrich very small amounts of fuel, with guarantees they be used only for medical purposes. That was also an idea discussed during unsuccessful diplomatic talks last year.

“I think the Americans are waiting for the right answers from the Iranians. I don’t know if the Iranians can come up with the right answers that Americans are expecting,” the second regional source said.

Option 2: A limited strike to force deal-making

Trump may order a targeted attack on select military sites inside Iran to pressure the country’s leaders into agreeing to an acceptable deal — demonstrating US threats of action are real.

The targets could include ballistic missile sites, facilities connected to Iran’s nuclear program or buildings used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Trump on Friday confirmed a limited strike was something he was weighing. “I guess I can say I am considering,” he said at the White House.

Whether such an action would convince Tehran to make a deal — or harden its resolve to resist US diplomacy — is a matter of dispute. Many regional officials said they did not believe Iran would quickly return to the negotiating table if the US carried out a strike, no matter the scale.

Any strike inside Iran also risks retaliation toward US assets in the Middle East, something officials have repeatedly warned Trump about during briefings over the last weeks. Iran has warned that American military bases could become targets if it is struck. The country did retaliate after June’s strikes on its nuclear facilities, though no American troops were killed.

US military personnel in the region are prepared to execute a range of operations should Trump give the order. The US military has the assets in place to carry out any of the potential strike options and has been making logistical preparations in the event Trump gives a final order, according to a source familiar with the planning.

That includes mapping out the specific weapons that would be used on various target sets and running through the timing of potential aircraft sorties based on the plans that have been drawn up, the source said.

Option 3: A larger strike going after the regime

If diplomacy fails, Trump could launch a far larger operation meant to topple the Iranian regime. There is already plenty of firepower positioned around Iran to carry out even the most extreme options available to the president, according to a source familiar with the matter.

That could include a series of simultaneous strikes against various targets, or multiple waves of strikes, the source said. Those targets could include a mix of Iranian leaders or components tied to the regime, or military personnel and installations, including air defenses, missile production sites and nuclear facilities.

The IRGC, whose mission is to preserve Islamic rule in Iran, will almost certainly be targeted in any military operation, the source said. More complicated would be the question of how to target government or self-appointed religious leaders.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine and other military leaders have raised concerns about the scale, complexity and potential for US casualties that could result from a major, extended military operation against Iran, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

He and others inside the Pentagon have also warned about the potential strain such an operation would put on service members and assets deployed in the region, as well as how a protracted military campaign could further impact US weapons stockpiles, particularly as it relates to arms used in support of Israel and Ukraine, the sources said.

It was not immediately clear to what extent Caine has raised these concerns to Trump directly, but the president said in a Monday Truth Social post that “Caine, like all of us, would like not to see War but, if a decision is made on going against Iran at a Military level, it is his opinion that it will be something easily won.”

Still, any strikes intended to seriously threaten the regime’s future hinges, in large part, on understanding what comes next. The Trump administration does not appear to have a clear picture of who would replace the leadership if the US successfully carries out regime change, and its visibility inside the country’s opposition groups appears limited.

Nor has Trump received any firm guarantee that even a massive US military operation inside Iran would result in the regime’s ouster. That lack of certainty has informed intensive sessions inside the White House Situation Room in recent days, as Trump debates his options.

Many on Trump’s team are hopeful — if not entirely optimistic — that diplomacy will prevail, even if the outlines of an acceptable deal are still unclear. Still others in Trump’s ear have insisted Iran is badly weakened, and the time for action is now.

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