2024: An election about everything
Analysis by Zachary B. Wolf, CNN
(CNN) — Elections are never about any one thing, although in hindsight they may seem that way. Any issue percolating this week could have a serious effect, in ways big or small, on the outcome of an election that will in turn affect the direction of the country for everyone.
Generally speaking, recent polling suggests more people side with Democrats on abortion and climate change and with Republicans on the economy and immigration. All of those issues are very topical this week. And so are the developments in former President Donald Trump’s universe of legal problems, which are topical every week.
Trump trials
The current GOP primary front-runner is awaiting trial over criminal charges in four different places – New York, Washington, DC, Georgia and Florida. Some polls have suggested a guilty verdict could affect a small but potentially decisive number of people’s willingness to vote for Trump.
His legal defense strategy is to delay the trials and get elected. It’s a strategy that could be paying off.
Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is overseeing his federal 2020 election interference case, has tried to stick to an early March trial start date, alongside but unrelated to primaries across the country. This week, she was forced to put things on hold while appeals courts and the US Supreme Court rule on Trump’s argument he should be immune from prosecution.
If this trial in Washington, DC, is ultimately delayed, that could affect the other trials. Will delays affect President Joe Biden’s ability to make the argument that Trump is a threat to democracy?
Americans should know who Trump is by now. He’s the former president who tried to stay in office despite losing the election in 2020.
They can seriously consider whether he is joking when he says he wants to be dictator for a day if he’s elected in 2024. They have time to educate themselves on his plans to drastically change the makeup of the government, use the Justice Department to go after his enemies and gut the US regulatory structure.
Biden impeachment inquiry
Republicans have so far failed, despite doggedly trying, to uncover some kind of malfeasance to tie Biden to his son Hunter’s foreign income or tax avoidance.
That search won’t be stopping any time soon. With a vote to formalize their impeachment inquiry into President Biden this week, House Republicans will now more forcefully use their subpoena and investigative power to try to find something for which to impeach him. Whether or not this effort further sinks Biden’s approval rating (or House Republicans) remains to be seen.
Republicans have been on this path against Biden for years, since Trump, as president, called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to pressure him into investigating Biden. That Trump faced his first impeachment for trying to tarnish Biden in the same way that Republicans are now trying to impeach Biden is a bizarre political irony that should be lost on no one.
Immigration
Republicans have long been using the language of invasion to describe the situation at the border. Meanwhile, some big-city Democratic mayors are angry at the White House about the mass transportation of migrants into their cities without a plan to keep them fed and housed or allow them to legally seek employment. Border communities have declared the situation to be a humanitarian crisis.
Rather than solve the problem with comprehensive new legislation, there’s a lot of finger-pointing on Capitol Hill and dissembling by the Biden administration.
The next inflection point at the national level will be House Republicans’ decision to use funding for Ukraine as leverage to demand a return to Trump-era border policies and keep more migrants and asylum-seekers out of the country.
Biden, keen to keep funding Ukraine, seems likely to offer at least some concessions, although a resolution will likely have to wait until after the holidays. Any move Biden makes to placate Republicans will aggravate progressives in his party who do not want to crack down on migration.
Israel
Biden is facing a growing outcry from the left over US support for Israel, splintering another united front and potentially disenchanting the young voters and voters of color on which Democrats rely to win elections.
One of the latest examples of such discontent is the interruption of Vice President Kamala Harris at a holiday party in her Naval Observatory home by a Democratic state representative from Delaware who is Muslim.
There is also the disturbing (for Democrats) CNN poll this week from Michigan, a state with a strong Muslim population. In that state, registered voters currently give Trump the advantage over Biden.
Biden and his administration have begun to more visibly pressure Israel’s right-wing government to modulate its operations in already devastated Gaza, and hopefully the situation cools sooner rather than later.
The divisions over Israel defy party lines. Most Jewish Americans vote with Democrats. So do most Muslim Americans. But the debate is increasingly partisan.
Frustrations about antisemitism and Islamophobia that have riled college campuses reached Washington last week with remarkable testimony by college presidents from Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Pennsylvania. Republicans in particular seized upon their comments about antisemitism.
Shutdown
After twice hitting the snooze button on a standoff over government spending, a long-anticipated government shutdown is looking likely for the beginning of 2024, even though it could come in several acts.
There are open questions about whether there will ultimately be a shutdown, how long it could last and how it might affect everyday Americans.
But House Republicans are preparing to make a major issue of government spending. Government largesse is an issue that could grow in importance over the next year as Democrats try to use the government to make the country a better place, and Republicans try to make government smaller based on the idea that doing so will make the country a better place.
Abortion
There’s zero chance of the two parties coming together on a national abortion rights policy in the near future. But abortion could be on the ballot in key states, and the US Supreme Court will again be considering abortion policy (specifically, access to the widely used abortion medication mifepristone) before Election Day.
In the same way Republicans will focus on immigration, Democrats will make abortion access a key part of their pitch to voters next year.
Economy
When asked, voters are usually going to list the economy as among the most important issue for them.
Inflation has stabilized after the Federal Reserve instituted painful interest rate hikes to control prices. This week, Fed officials are talking about interest rate cuts instead of interest rate hikes.
Biden, for now, has a compelling case to make about an economy that continues to see extremely low unemployment. The stock market hit another record high this week.
But he gets no credit for the economy in polling, and while prices may not be rising as fast as they were, polling suggests the vast majority of the country is uneasy about the state of things.
Perceptions of increased crime in cities can’t help but exacerbate this feeling of unease. The average price of gasoline, frequently a key barometer, has fallen dramatically from historic highs but is still about a dollar more per gallon than it was when Biden took office.
It’s a hard and hypocritical reality for Democrats like Biden who want the country to do more to combat climate change and transition the country away from fossil fuels that Biden’s political fortune may be tied to lowering gas prices.
Everything else
Just because these are the issues we’re talking about this week doesn’t mean all of them will be top of mind in November 2024.
News will occur. The climate will continue to change. Lawmakers will react. It will all be added into the mixture.
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