Dangerous heavy rain is hammering parts of Texas, raising flood risk in waterlogged region
By Meteorologists Chris Dolce, Mary Gilbert, and CNN’s Hanna Park
(CNN) — Another round of slow-moving storms packing heavy rain is pounding an already drenched area of central and southwest Texas Wednesday, again raising the potential of life-threatening flooding.
The relentless rain has led to dozens of water rescues in the region and forecasters are warning of more rainfall that could be catastrophic. The area facing additional downpours includes Texas Hill Country, which saw devastating flash flooding last July that left more than 130 dead, including 25 girls and two counselors at Camp Mystic.
Wednesday marks the second straight day the Weather Prediction Center has issued its highest risk of flooding rain. It’s the first time the agency has issued the alert on back-to-back days since April 2025.
By the end of Tuesday, at least 45 people had been pulled from floodwaters in Uvalde County, multiple additional rescues were carried out in neighboring Medina County and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had issued a disaster declaration for 59 counties.
‘Worst-case scenario’ for flooding
The escalated flood threat Wednesday includes rounds of heavy, slow-moving rainfall on top of areas already soaked by 6 to 12 inches of rain on Monday and Tuesday. The threat of catastrophic flooding won’t ease up until Friday, as storms drop rain at 2 to 4 inches per hour.
The areas most at risk of dangerous flash flooding Wednesday are nearly identical to the ones that were deluged on Tuesday, including parts of the western Hill Country, the Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande Valley near the US-Mexico border. Surrounding areas are under a very serious Level 3 of 4 risk.
Flooding issues could get off to a faster start Wednesday given how soaked the ground is from Tuesday’s storms. It will also take less rain to trigger serious flooding with any rain more quickly turning to runoff instead of soaking into the ground.
This type of pattern where storms repeatedly hit the same areas is a “worst-case scenario,” according to the Weather Prediction Center.
Flood watches are in effect for more than six million people across central and southwest Texas, including Austin, Del Rio, San Angelo and San Antonio. Flooding is likely on roads and in urban areas, and some homes could be inundated, the center warned. Creeks, streams and rivers will rise, and moderate to major flooding could develop on some.
Rainfall totals could climb into the double-digits in areas hit repeatedly Wednesday since rain began there earlier this week.
The area at greatest risk of flash flooding in Texas will shrink some by Thursday, but will still include some of the hardest-hit areas. Anywhere from Del Rio to Midland and San Angelo could see additional flooding. Farther east, the flood threat extends toward the Gulf Coast, where Houston could see at least localized flooding.
Drenching storms will start to ease considerably on Friday, with a lower-level flood threat lingering mainly in the western part of the state.
In total, parts of central and southwest Texas will see several additional inches of rain through the end of the week. Exact totals will vary depending on where the heavier downpours persist.
Some of the hardest-hit locales could end up with up to 15 inches of rain.
Del Rio could see over 6 inches, which is about what the city typically sees from June to August. Totals around 10 inches would be half its average yearly rainfall in just a few days.
Why this keeps happening
Extreme rainfall events like this are becoming more common as planet-warming pollution drives temperatures higher, because warmer air holds more moisture – which storms can then wring out like a water-laden sponge in heavy, localized downpours.
The Hill Country is especially prone to flooding issues because its steep slopes, shallow soils and exposed bedrock repel heavy rain instead of absorbing it.
Fueling the threat is abundant Gulf moisture clashing with a stalled front and a pocket of energy in the upper atmosphere – a notorious recipe for slow-moving clusters of storms that can unleash 2 to 4 inches of rain an hour.
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