Trump won more young voters, but many don’t agree with him on issues: AP VoteCast

Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans ages 18 to 29 swung toward President-elect Donald Trump in this year’s election, but they came to his coalition with sharply different views and interests than older conservatives or most top Republican leaders.

Trump won nearly half of voters in the age group, compared with about one-third in 2020, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide. That means that although the youngest voters made up a relatively small share, about 15%, of his coalition, he was nearly as strong among this group as Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate.

VoteCast found that Trump’s younger voters were more motivated by the economy than by immigration, were broadly concerned about climate change, and wanted more government involvement in health care and canceling student loan debt.

That could inform the course Trump sets for his second term and how Republicans looking ahead to the 2026 midterm election and the 2028 presidential race respond. The GOP traditionally has opposed broad action on climate change, health care or student loans. Trump, meanwhile, has promised to stage the largest deportation operation in U.S. history and impose sweeping tariffs, actions that mainstream economists warn could drive up prices and cost jobs.

“Donald Trump’s rhetoric did not prevent them from supporting him this time around,” said Barrett Marson, a Republican strategist based in Arizona, a battleground state. “It sounds like the economic issues overrode everything. So if Donald Trump delivers on his economic promises, then will young people stick with Republicans? That is a question we can’t answer right now.”

More moderate and less motivated by immigration

Trump made inroads among younger voters, but that was not accompanied by a big ideological shift. According to AP VoteCast, just over one-half of Trump voters under 30 said they are somewhat or very conservative, compared with about 8 in 10 Trump voters age 65 and older.

While most younger Trump voters identified with his “Make America Great Again” movement, they were less likely to say they are MAGA Republicans than are older Trump voters.

Younger Trump voters’ motivations for voting this year also looked different from older Trump voters. About 6 in 10 Trump voters 65 and older said the situation at the U.S-Mexico border was the single most important issue for their vote, compared with about one-third of Trump voters under 30.

Younger Trump voters were more focused on the economy. About half of these voters said the economy and jobs are the top issue facing the country, compared with about 4 in 10 older Trump voters.

Many younger Trump voters want big government

A second Trump administration could target government programs and services such as Affordable Care Act subsidies, but that may not be popular with his younger supporters.

Trump voters under 30 were nearly evenly split on whether the government should do more to solve people’s problems. Slightly less than half agreed with this, while about half said the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. That compares with about 2 in 10 Trump voters 65 and older who said the government should be doing more, and about 8 in 10 who said the government was doing too many things.

There is a bigger age divide on this question among Trump voters than there was in 2020, when about 6 in 10 Trump voters under 30 said the government was doing too many things that should be left to businesses and individuals, compared with about three-quarters of Trump voters 65 and older.

Two issues, health care and debt relief, could be particularly big sticking points for Trump’s younger supporters. More than half of them want the government more involved in health care coverage, compared with about 3 in 10 older Trump voters. There is a similar split on whether government should be more involved in forgiving medical debt.

Trump has criticized Democratic President Joe Biden’s student debt forgiveness program, although Trump has not specified how he will tackle the issue. Nearly half of 18- to 29 year-old Trump voters strongly or somewhat favor the government canceling student loan debt for more people, compared with about 1 in 10 Trump voters over 65.

Climate change is a significant concern

Trump has said he will target some of the national climate policies that are most effective at reducing planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, according to climate change experts. About 6 in 10 of Trump voters under 30 were somewhat or very concerned about the effects of climate change in their community, compared with about 3 in 10 Trump voters 65 and older.

Younger Trump voters were much more split on how the U.S. should approach energy policy, with a significant share supporting the kinds of alternative energy investments that Trump has promised to roll back.

Just slightly more than half wanted the U.S. to expand production of fossil fuels, as Trump has promised, compared with about 8 in 10 Trump voters 65 and older. And about 4 in 10 Trump voters under 30 wanted the U.S. to focus on expanding the use of alternative energy, compared with 14% of Trump voters 65 and older.

Tariffs and hardline immigration policies are less popular

Another potential issue for Trump: The tariffs he has promised are another dividing line among his voters. Slightly less than half of Trump voters under 30 are somewhat or strongly opposed to tariffs, while about 8 in 10 Trump voters over 65 are in favor.

His immigration policies could be an issue for some younger Trump supporters, too. About half of Trump voters under 30 strongly favor reducing the number of people who can seek asylum at the border, compared with about 8 in 10 Trump voters 65 and older.

More than 4 in 10 Trump voters under 30 think immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally should be offered a chance to apply for legal status, compared with about 2 in 10 Trump voters 65 and older. There was no age divide on this question among Trump voters in 2020.

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Associated Press writer Jonathan J. Cooper in Phoenix contributed to this report.

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AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, PBS NewsHour, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The survey of more than 120,000 voters was conducted for eight days, concluding as polls closed. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files; self-identified registered voters using NORC’s probability based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability online panels. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated to be plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. Find more details about APVoteCast’s methodology at https://www.ap.org/elections/our-role/ap-votecast/