A bipartisan infrastructure plan has a breakthrough in Congress — but it’s not over yet
By Lauren Fox and Phil Mattingly, CNN
The massive breakthrough Wednesday night on infrastructure breathes new life for President Joe Biden’s hope of a bipartisan agenda that could cement his legacy as a dealmaker and open the door to more breakthroughs down the line, but it also is just the beginning of a fraught, multi-week effort that will test Democratic unity and reveal schisms within the party.
Bottom line: This isn’t even close to over. Legislative language isn’t on paper, members aren’t briefed and Biden still needs to announce his support.
Progress? Absolutely.
Votes to pass? Let’s wait and see.
What to watch
In negotiations like this one, reaction is everything. Obviously, the bipartisan group is expected to head to the White House late Thursday morning to talk about this negotiation with the President. That’s step one, but don’t discount other important voices in the next 24 hours.
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will be a key tell. He’s been open to the work the bipartisan group has done and he’s been kept in the loop every step of the way. His floor speech Thursday morning will be an important barometer of where rank-and-file Republicans might land. Without his blessing, it’s unlikely you can get 10 Republicans. With it, you could potentially get even more.
Plan may need more than 10 Republicans
Don’t assume every Democrat is going to vote for this proposal. It’s entirely possible that more Republican votes would be needed for a bipartisan package. Progressive voices are important Thursday. Do they keep an open mind? Do they keep their powder dry? We’ll see in the next several hours.
Earlier this week, liberal senators were signaling they were ready for a fight. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who caucuses with the Democrats, has made clear he has issues with the contours of the bipartisan framework and he’s always wanted to do just one bill arguing that it gives more leverage to get every Democrat on board. Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has signaled to us that she wants assurances from moderates that they’ll agree to the reconciliation package before she agrees to what she views as a plan that doesn’t come close to doing what she thinks is needed on infrastructure. Now, all of that was before a deal was real. It’s very possible that if Biden throws his support behind this bipartisan effort, the dynamics change. The President’s effort to rally his party shouldn’t be underestimated here, but for now, we don’t know if every Democrat will support this bipartisan effort.
And, this is a good time to remember that Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia might have been the member to watch for the last six months, but in a 50-50 Senate, any Democrat can become the wrench in leadership’s best laid plans.
From the White House’s vantage point
White House officials, while pleased with where things currently stand and increasingly optimistic about a bipartisan outcome, have been cautious with their public appraisal of the deal up to this point. It’s a reflection of the fact Biden himself hadn’t been briefed until late Wednesday evening, and an acknowledgment that the President wants to meet face-to-face with the group before making any firm commitments, an official said.
But it’s also a recognition of a complicated path ahead. A framework is not deal. An outline is the furthest thing from legislative text. There are several outstanding issues that, while both sides think they can be ironed out, underscore that there is still real work to do, the official said. The second track, budget reconciliation, takes on an even more significant importance than ever — and it was already hugely important — given it is viewed as a necessity to clear the way for Democratic votes in favor of the bipartisan proposal.
To be clear, White House officials say they believe this deal will get done, and they have been factoring a bipartisan outcome into their overarching legislative strategy plan for the better part of the last 10 days. They are keenly aware, however, that significant work — likely at points from Biden himself — will need to go into ensuring Democrats support the proposal. There is an expectation, at this point at least, that a final deal will likely lose some progressive Democrats, another official said.
A lot of details are still under wraps
The momentum Wednesday night came after White House officials and bipartisan negotiators finally began to see eye to eye on how to finance the infrastructure plan.
One source familiar with the talks told CNN that an understanding to reallocate some unspent Covid relief funding was key. Sen. Rob Portman, a Republican from Ohio, also told reporters Wednesday that Republicans had agreed to come up on how much they believed tax enforcement could actually raise. Those breakthroughs are credited with helping break the logjam, but as Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican from Maine, said there are still some other details to iron out. Where all of the new money goes is still very much a question mark for those watching this negotiation closely.
The bipartisan effort is just one piece of this puzzle
Lost in the shuffle of the bipartisan meetings this week has been the quiet efforts that are unfolding behind the scenes on reconciliation.
The effort to pass a far broader and sweeping bill that reimagines the American workforce and tackles Democratic priorities that have been decades in the making is well underway. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer met Wednesday with key committee chairmen to talk more about that process and members of the Senate Budget Committee have been working all week with Sanders on retooling his budget outline so they can find an agreement on how big this reconciliation package should be. Sanders offered $6 trillion. That’s likely much larger than where things will land, but the price tag is not the only thing to pay attention to.
Embedded in Sanders’ proposal are massive changes to the country’s immigration system, the cost of prescription drugs, a reimagining of the state and local tax deduction cap, paid family leave, and expansion of Obamacare, an extension of the boosted child tax credit, more money for gun violence prevention and more.
In other words, the proposal is massive, and its scope goes far beyond what even Biden laid out in his jobs and families plans.
It’s also going to have a very hard time getting the backing of every single Democrat. Moderates have issues with the scope. Another landmine is how Democrats approach prescription drug reform given some key Democrats hail from states where pharmaceutical companies are a powerful juggernaut and employer.
In other words, the spotlight might be on the bipartisan deal Thursday, but there is a reason that progressives are looking for some assurances from moderates that they’ll eventually vote for a standalone reconciliation bill: it’s going to be very hard to pass, but it is the best opportunity Democrats have had in a decade to enact their sweeping economic agenda.
