What El Nino means for Idaho
A mild and dry winter. That’s what the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) forecast calls for after looking at the most recent long term models. The pattern directly reflects an El Nino pattern.
El Nino is a phenomenon where the typically cold waters off the west coast of South America are unusually warm. This changes the weather patterns on a global scale bringing extra precipitation to some parts of the world, with other regions seeing below average precipitation. In Idaho, we’ll most likely be seeing the latter of the two outcomes.
“The El Nino conditions are generally not favorable to water supplies in eastern Idaho,” said Lyle Swank with the Idaho Department of Water Resources. “The amount of snow pack we get (this winter) is important for our water supplies in 2016.”
While water is a concern, it’s not the only concern with a dry, mild winter. Researchers at the University of Idaho say winter is the greatest form of pest and plant disease control. If the typically chilly season isn’t so chilly, pests flourish.
“If it doesn’t get cold enough and the crops stay green, the diseases are going to be happy, and so are the insects,” said Juliet Marshall, a pathology and agronomy expert with the University of Idaho. “The warm winters not only allow disease to grow and spread during the winter, it allows cycles to continue into next spring.”
Marshall says even if the winter as a whole is warm, having a good cold snap with a few strong storms will go a long way to helping farmers come next spring.
