Thanksgiving dinner will cost you 14% more this year, survey finds

POCATELLO, Idaho (KIFI) – Thanksgiving dinner will cost 14% more this year, according to new survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Dinner for a family of 10 will cost on average $53.31 — up $6.41 from last year's average of $46.90 which was down 4% from 2019, the lowest in 10 years.

This year’s increase in the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving meal is the largest ever in the survey’s history, with inflation being the main driver in the increase.

The shopping list for AFBF’s informal survey includes turkey, stuffing, Russet potatoes, sweet potatoes, rolls with butter, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, pumpkin pie with whipped cream, and coffee and milk.

While conducting their surveys, Farm Bureau volunteer shoppers looked for the best possible prices without taking advantage of special promotional coupons or purchase deals.

According to AFBF economists, inflation is the main reason for the increase in the cost of this year’s Thanksgiving meal. COVID-related supply chain disruptions were another factor, as was the increasing difficulty in predicting demand.

More food is also being consumed at home since the COVID-19 outbreak began, which has resulted in a significant increase in demand for protein, according to the economists.

“There are a lot of factors at play here,” AFBF Economist Veronica Nigh said during a Nov. 18 media briefing on this year’s survey. “We’re seeing increased prices all along the supply chain.”

Total turkey production in the United States was down 4% this year compared with last year and the amount of turkeys in cold storage in September was down 20% compared with the same time last year.

Idaho Farm Bureau Federation President Bryan Searle, a potato farmer from Shelley, said there is no sugar-coating the fact the average cost of a Thanksgiving meal is up substantially this year.

But he also pointed out food is still pretty affordable for Americans, especially compared with what people in other nations pay.

According to AFBF, Americans spend the least amount of their disposable income on food: 9% in 2020. Citizens in other countries spend far more.

For example, in Brazil, people spent 17% of their disposable income on food in 2020 and in China they spent 22%. In Mexico, people spent 28 percent and in Vietnam and Bangladesh they spent 32% and 54%.

Even with the 14% increase, the average $53.31 cost for this year’s Thanksgiving feast for 10 people breaks down to $5.33 per person.

“Not to downplay the sting that American consumers are facing with increased food prices but to keep things in perspective, farmers are still farming and producing food, although the cost right now is a little bit higher,” Searle said.

Nigh stressed American farmers and ranchers are continuing to produce plenty of food and fiber.

“There are no concerns about shortages,” she said.

“The good news is that we have a very resilient farming sector and American farmers and ranchers are continuing to produce the most affordable and reliable food supply in the history of the world,” said IFBF CEO Zak Miller, who farms in St. Anthony.

The main reason for the increase in this year’s Thanksgiving feast is the cost of turkey, which, according to the surveys, rose 24% compared to 2020.

Not including turkey, the rest of the items included in the AFBF Thanksgiving meal survey were up a combined 6.6% compared with last year.

According to the survey, the average cost for a 5-pound bag of Russet potatoes increased 41 cents, or 16%.

The only item that decreased in cost this year was stuffing.

Despite the increased price of this year’s meal, there are still plenty of turkeys and other traditional Thanksgiving feast food items available, Searle said.

“And there are plenty of Idaho’s most famous commodity – potatoes – still available as well,” he added.

Idaho ranks No. 1 in potato production in the U.S. and the state’s farmers produce about a third of the nation’s total spud supply.

AFBF economists pointed out that only about 8% of the total cost of a Thanksgiving meal this year is related to farmers’ production costs. The rest is related to costs associated with transportation, processing, packaging and other factors.

American Farm Bureau Federation economists also pointed out that it’s likely people who are shopping for Thanksgiving food items right now are getting discounts and other deals, which the Farm Bureau volunteer shoppers who helped conduct the survey did not.

Because grocery stores have a lot of flexibility on what prices they charge for different food items, the actual cost that Americans pay for this year’s Thanksgiving feast could vary significantly depending on location and store.

The AFBF volunteer shoppers conducted their surveys from Oct. 26-Nov. 8.

“We hope people are able to get a better deal than our shoppers were able to get during the time they were out shopping,” Searle said.