AP EXPLAINS: How one computer forecast model botched Ian
By SETH BORENSTEIN
AP Science Writer
Hurricane Ian confounded one key computer forecast model, creating challenges for forecasters and Florida residents. And a government postmortem Thursday figured it’s probably because the usually reliable American forecast model missed how cool Canadian air had weakened sunny weather over the East Coast. That weakening allowed the storm to move east instead of north and west but the American computer missed that. It was an unusual miss — and overall the hurricane center still got the official forecast right. Barely. The storm hit Southwest Florida — an area that was always in the hurricane track’s cone of uncertainty, if sometimes at the edge.
