US makes final ceasefire push before election but doubts progress will be made in Gaza before next US president is known

By Kevin Liptak, CNN

(CNN) — American officials remain doubtful a final diplomatic push in the Middle East this week will result in a pause in fighting in Gaza before Tuesday’s US presidential election, according to people familiar with the thinking, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu waits to see who the next American president will be.

Hopes for progress in ending the fighting in Lebanon are slightly higher, and the country’s prime minister on Thursday voiced optimism that a deal to bring an end to cross-border violence between Israel and Hezbollah could be in the final stages.

“We are doing our best and are optimistic that within the next few hours or days we will have a ceasefire,” Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said Wednesday in an interview with Lebanese media outlet Al Jadeed.

Any progress at lowering temperatures in the region will be considered a win inside the White House. Still, the sense that Netanyahu is waiting out the US campaign season – a long-held view inside the Biden administration – remains strong as top envoys travel in the region to discuss prospects of bringing the violence to an end.

CIA Director Bill Burns was in Cairo on Thursday for discussions on Gaza and Lebanon, including a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.

At the same time, US envoy Amos Hochstein and White House Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk are in Israel for talks on hostage and ceasefire issues along with a discussion of Iran, all centered on the US policy of “de-escalation backed by deterrence.”

Hopes for striking a deal to end the fighting across the Israel-Lebanon border have been freshly bolstered by progress in the talks over the past several days, and Hochstein was expected to continue the talks this week.

On Thursday, Netanyahu told Hochstein and McGurk that Israel must have the ability to enforce a potential ceasefire agreement in Lebanon to thwart threats from the country.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu made it clear that the main point is not this or that agreement on paper, but Israel’s ability and determination to enforce the agreement and thwart any threat to its security from Lebanon, in a manner that will return our residents securely to their homes,” the statement said.

The US envoys also met Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant to discuss “security arrangements” related to northern Israel, Lebanon and the return of hostages from Gaza.

But with the conclusion of a razor-thin US election in sight, there is little expectation the final drive toward concluding the war in Gaza will result in immediate success.

That makes it likely the war in Gaza will continue shadowing the US contest in its final days. On Wednesday evening, a few minutes into Vice President Kamala Harris’ speech in Madison, a few disruptions broke out inside the arena, which was filled with many students from the nearby University of Wisconsin-Madison.

“Ceasefire now!” one protester shouted.

“We all want the war in Gaza to end and get the hostages out,” Harris said, adding that she would do “everything in my power” to bring the Middle East conflict to a close.

As a few more protesters echoed in the crowd, she added sharply: “Everyone has the right to be heard, but right now I am speaking.”

The scene, which has been repeated at Harris rallies throughout her abbreviated campaign, demonstrates the political liability the Middle East has become for the Democratic candidate.

Harris almost always points back to the necessity of a ceasefire, even as the talks to secure one stalled.

This week, American officials heading to the Middle East hope to make one final push toward resolving the conflicts before the election, but they are realistic about the likelihood of major breakthroughs.

In Cairo, Burns was expected to continue discussing a new proposal raised in recent days by the United States, Israel and Qatar involving a monthlong ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the release of some hostages.

After months of stop-and-go negotiations, American officials remain cautiously hopeful the new proposal can shake loose the stalled talks, particularly after the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

But a number of details are still outstanding, according to people familiar with the talks, including the number and breakdown of hostages and Palestinian prisoners who would be released as part of the agreement.

The temporary truce would be shorter than the six-week first phase that was previously being discussed before talks last fell apart, two sources familiar with the talks said. Qatari negotiators, who, along with Egypt, are the main interlocutors with Hamas, are currently discussing the limited proposal with Hamas, one of the sources said.

And there is continued pessimism that Hamas will agree to any new plan that doesn’t include a permanent ceasefire. Hamas wants “confirmation that there is Israeli approval on any plan that is presented to them,” a diplomat familiar with the discussions said.

On Sunday, Burns was in Doha to meet with Israel’s Mossad Director David Barnea and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani in an attempt to revive the ceasefire discussions following Sinwar’s death, which US officials have argued should be a turning point in the Gaza war.

In Lebanon, where Israel has been waging a major operation against Hezbollah, American officials hope to arrange a diplomatic solution to end the violence.

After a conversation Thursday with Hochstein ahead of his visit to the region, Lebanon’s Mikati said he felt optimistic for a potential Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire to be struck “within the next few hours or days.”

Israel and the White House had earlier downplayed a reported ceasefire draft proposal to address the Israel-Hezbollah conflict that had been circulating in regional media outlets.

“There are many reports and drafts circulating. None reflect the current state of negotiations,” the Israeli prime minister’s office said in a statement to CNN.

The White House offered the same message; National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said purported drafts shared online do not reflect the current state of ceasefire talks.

CNN’s Lauren Izso, Alex Marquardt and Mostafa Salem contributed reporting.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2024 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.