How risky would a US assault on Iran’s Kharg Island be — and why might Trump consider it

By Billy Stockwell, CNN

(CNN) — Even as US President Donald Trump has declared the “war has been won” with Iran, amphibious warships, landing craft and thousands of Marines and sailors are being deployed to the region.

The deployment has caused speculation to swirl over whether the US plans to capture Kharg Island, a coral outcrop off Iran’s coast and an economic lifeline for Tehran that handles roughly 90% of the country’s crude oil exports.

Even if Washington successfully took the tiny but strategic island, experts have questioned whether this would give the US enough leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid a spiraling global energy crisis.

Here’s what we know about the potential ground operation, and its risks.

What is Kharg Island?

Kharg Island is a five-mile stretch of land off the Iranian coast around a third of the size of Manhattan, described by US officials as the “nexus for all the Iranian oil supply.”

Its long jetties jutt into waters that are deep enough to accommodate oil supertankers, making the island a critical site for oil distribution.

The island has long been key to Iran’s economy. A declassified CIA document from 1984 published online said the facilities are “the most vital in Iran’s oil system, and their continued operation is essential to Iran’s economic well-being.”

Alternative export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz exist, but they are limited and have not been robustly tested on a large scale, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

For example, in 2021, Iran inaugurated the Jask oil terminal, allowing crude oil to be transported to Jask on the Gulf of Oman just east of the strait, but the terminal is not considered a viable export option for Iranian crude, the IEA said.

Storage capacity on Kharg is estimated at roughly 30 million barrels and, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler, about 18 million barrels of crude are currently stored there, Reuters reported.

Earlier this month, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid said destroying the terminal would “cripple Iran’s economy and topple the regime.” He declared that Israel “must destroy all of Iran’s oil fields and energy industry on Kharg Island.”

How risky would a US ground attack be?

Two Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU), which specialize in rapid-response amphibious landings, raids and assault missions from Navy amphibious ships, have recently deployed to the Middle East.

Previous military exercises involving MEU have seen the spectacle of attack helicopters in the skies, troops on the beach and huge assault ships in the water.

James Stavridis, NATO’s former supreme allied commander, said Tuesday the ships of a MEU “pack a lot of combat capability.”

But he cautioned that before any ground operation, they would have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and to the northern part of the gulf, contending with Iranian drones, ballistic missiles and mines in the waterway, Stavridis wrote in a Bloomberg article.

“Once in position off Kharg, the Marines would need ironclad air and sea superiority over at least 100 miles around the island,” Stavridis said.

One significant risk is that Iran could strike the amphibious ships. Another concern is the fate of the island’s population – estimated to be in the thousands and almost all oil workers – who would need to be “contained” or evacuated, Stavridis added.

Stavridis also questioned the strategic leverage that such an operation would give Washington. “If the idea is to then bargain with Tehran for an opening of the Strait of Hormuz, it is unclear that the remaining leaders of the regime would be cowed by the threat of losing Kharg,” Stavridis said.

“They might balk at agreeing to give up anything for Kharg,” he added.

Alongside potential US casualties, Richard Haass, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said last week any mission on Kharg would likely “further erode US missile stockpiles.”

The exact reason why the US is weighing seizing Kharg is unclear, but Haass said it would “likely be seen by many there and around the world as a US attempt to seize Iranian oil,” he wrote on his Substack page.

Has Iran been preparing for a potential US attack?

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Wednesday that “Iran’s enemies, with the support of one of the regional countries” are preparing to occupy one of the country’s islands, without directing naming the island.

“All enemy movements are under the full surveillance of our armed forces. If they step out of line, all the vital infrastructure of that regional country will, without restriction, become the target of relentless attacks,” Ghalibaf posted on X on Wednesday.

Earlier Wednesday, Ghalibaf said, “We are closely monitoring all US movements in the region, especially troop deployments.”

Iran has been laying traps and moving additional military personnel and air defenses to Kharg Island in recent weeks in preparation for a possible US operation to take control of the island, according to multiple people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue.

The island already has layered defenses, and the Iranians have moved additional shoulder-fired, surface-to-air guided missile systems known as MANPADs there in recent weeks, the sources said.

Iran has also been laying traps including anti-personnel and anti-armor mines around the island, the sources said, including on the shoreline.

Has the US attacked the island before?

Yes. Earlier this month, Trump said the US had bombed “every military target” on the island and threatened to attack its oil infrastructure if Iran continued blocking ships from traversing the Strait of Hormuz.

Video posted to Truth Social and geolocated by CNN showed US strikes on the island’s airport facilities, with large explosions and black smoke visible throughout the footage.

Trump said on the same day that Kharg was “not high on the list, but it’s one of so many different things, and I can change my mind in seconds.”

But as far back as 1988, decades before he was elected, Trump has talked about invading the island.

“One bullet shot at one of our men or ships and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it,” he told The Guardian in an interview at the time.

White House officials believe taking Kharg Island would “totally bankrupt” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to one official, and could potentially lead to a swift end of the war.

But many inside the administration are wary of such a move, particularly given it would require a significant number of ground troops to achieve.

How are regional players reacting?

Gulf allies are privately urging the Trump administration against prolonging the war by putting boots on the ground to occupy Kharg Island, a senior gulf official said.

The concern is that occupying the island with US troops would result in high casualties, likely triggering Iranian retaliation against gulf countries’ infrastructure and prolonging the conflict, the senior gulf official said.

Iranian officials have warned as much.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy chief, Alireza Tangsiri – who Israel claimed to have killed on Thursday – said last November that Iran’s islands across the Persian Gulf are “fortified strongholds.”

“If an enemy makes a mistake, it will receive a decisive response there,” Tangsiri said.

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CNN’s Kit Maher, Kevin Liptak, Sarah Ferris, Helen Regan, Laura Sharman, Natasha Bertrand, Zachary Cohen, Kylie Atwood, Tal Shalev and Isaac Yee contributed reporting.